Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 1 Move 5 Herd to play

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Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 1 Move 5 Herd to play

3 1

let me know of any other options u would like..

[ah_clem]

When in doubt, make the  5 point.  Not sure if it's best. I'll roll it out in a couple of days.

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Making the 5 point is not the best move here according to XG full rollout. But it's off by so little that it's within the margin of error.
That's part of the power of "when in doubt make the 5 point" - even when it's wrong it's not wrong by much.

So why might 24/23 13/8 be better than making the 5?  Well, splitting early is often a good idea, and here elmicho has made a better anchor so we need to get off the ace point while we have the chance.  Keeping the 8 point blocks 6s while making the five point gives him 6s to hit.  11/8 restores the spare on the 8 and cleans up a blot. But it's not obvious to me that this is better than making a permanent asset and a 4 point board.  And since I"m not sure, I'll make the 5.

As for the other plays, the 10 point is simply not very valuable, and stepping up to the 20 puts the checker utg with 4 builders aimed at it - too risky for the reward.


XGID=-BbB--C-B--AcCa-ac-c-b--B-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X  O     O  O    |   | O     O        X |
| X           O    |   | O     O        X |
| X           O    |   | O                |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
| O                |   | X                |
| O           X    |   | X        X  O  X |
| O  X        X    |   | X        X  O  X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 140  O: 155 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 31

   1. Rollout¹    24/23 11/8                   eq:-0.367
     Player:   41.89% (G:13.21% B:0.75%)
     Opponent: 58.11% (G:19.71% B:0.90%)
     Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.382..-0.352) - [84.9%]
     Duration: 6 minutes 19 seconds

   2. Rollout¹    8/5 6/5                      eq:-0.378 (-0.011)
     Player:   40.80% (G:15.11% B:0.92%)
     Opponent: 59.20% (G:19.52% B:1.30%)
     Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.392..-0.364) - [13.5%]
     Duration: 5 minutes 56 seconds

   3. Rollout¹    24/23 13/10                  eq:-0.391 (-0.024)
     Player:   40.76% (G:14.63% B:0.96%)
     Opponent: 59.24% (G:20.32% B:1.30%)
     Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.410..-0.373) - [1.6%]
     Duration: 6 minutes 35 seconds

   4. Rollout¹    24/20                        eq:-0.444 (-0.077)
     Player:   40.02% (G:14.75% B:0.90%)
     Opponent: 59.98% (G:21.34% B:1.20%)
     Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.461..-0.428) - [0.0%]
     Duration: 6 minutes 35 seconds

   5. Rollout¹    13/10 11/10                  eq:-0.489 (-0.122)
     Player:   39.10% (G:12.65% B:1.05%)
     Opponent: 60.90% (G:19.61% B:0.98%)
     Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.504..-0.474) - [0.0%]
     Duration: 6 minutes 11 seconds


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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