Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 1 Move 11 Herd to play

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Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 1 Move 11 Herd to play

2 1

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

One very good reason to split early is that the longer you wait the more difficult the decision becomes. We need to get our guys moving, but splitting  makes them vulnerable to attack.  

I think stepping up to the 22 is a mistake since 5s and 6s will play poorly.  Also, our opponent will be more likely to attack on the 22 than the 23 and the 22 has no more escapintg numbers than the 23 or 24.

But if we sit still, we will likely crunch before him.  My initial impulse was to hold tight, but the more I think about it the more I think we need to spring a checker to preserve timing.  So, 24/23 and then 13/11. We can then run out with 5s and 6s and go slow  with small numbers.

24/23 13/11.


PS - is there a reason why we are playing with the pip count turned off?

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[stog]

yes cos i don't have one on, when i play, 'cept the 'i believe in father xmas one' i usually play with...

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

I'm travelling with an ancient mini laptop so I can't provide an extensive rollout, but I don't think we need one.  

Splitting is mandatory here, otherwise we're just sitting on the ace point waiting to lose as our board crunches.  Note that 24/23 13/11 loses fewer gammons than the chicken play (13/10). Stepping up to the 22 gives us no more escaping numbers while inviting elmicho to attack us there, so those two plays don't fare so well as the simple Z.



   1. Rollout          24/23 13/11                  Eq.:  +0.242
      0.522 0.156 0.011 - 0.478 0.158 0.008 CL  +0.014 CF  +0.242
     [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.010]
       Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
       1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736285877 and quasi-random dice
       Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
       Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
   2. Rollout          24/23 24/22                  Eq.:  +0.182 ( -0.061)
      0.516 0.143 0.013 - 0.484 0.187 0.009 CL  -0.047 CF  +0.182
     [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.010]
       Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
       1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736285877 and quasi-random dice
       Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
       Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
   3. Rollout          24/22 13/12                  Eq.:  +0.158 ( -0.084)
      0.506 0.145 0.014 - 0.494 0.187 0.012 CL  -0.067 CF  +0.158
     [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.010]
       Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
       1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736285877 and quasi-random dice
       Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
       Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
   4. Rollout          13/10                        Eq.:  +0.085 ( -0.157)
      0.476 0.124 0.012 - 0.524 0.168 0.009 CL  -0.129 CF  +0.085
     [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.009]
       Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
       1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736285877 and quasi-random dice
       Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
       Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
   5. Cubeful 0-ply    7/6 7/5                      Eq.:  -0.166 ( -0.408)
      0.395 0.117 0.003 - 0.605 0.186 0.010
       0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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