Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 1 Move 13 Herd to play

[stog]

ok seems straightforward but is it?
6 1

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Sixes don't grow on trees.  bar/18.

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[Zorba]

Spoiler

For winning the game, running out looks better as we'll have trouble otherwise getting the two backmen moving, and we'd be about to crack right away after 11/5. The downside to B/18 is that it probably loses more gammons, giving up the anchor, which is pretty bad on a 2-cube at 5-away both. Overall I still think b/18 wins out, but not sure.

[close]

[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

I think coming out is pretty clear. He desperately needs a 2 to come up in our board, but the 2 is duplicated by a hitting number on his side of the board. After we exit the position looks a bit scary, but it's also scary for him too, like when he misses us with 6-5.

I just don't see staying in his board as a winning strategy. Staying often leads to an earlier visit by Cracko the Clown. I'm also not sure that staying isn't as gammonish as coming out. As was pointed out earlier, 6s don't grow on trees, so grab the opportunity and run out.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Rewind this game a few moves and it was a prime v prime contest where the likely winner would be whoever could spring a runner to preserve timing.  It still is a prime v prime contest where the likely winner will be whoever can spring a runner to preserve timing.  Sitting on the ace point while the board cracks is a non-starter and a double-whopper with cheese.

Granted, abandoning the anchor loses more gammons, but running out wins so many more games and gammons that it's clear by a big margin.




    1. Rollout          bar/18                       Eq.:  +0.359
       0.581 0.142 0.007 - 0.419 0.198 0.007 CL  +0.081 CF  +0.359
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.009]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736285877 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
    2. Rollout          bar/24 11/5                  Eq.:  +0.090 ( -0.270)
       0.481 0.102 0.006 - 0.519 0.160 0.010 CL  -0.126 CF  +0.090
      [0.002 0.001 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.008]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736285877 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
    3. Rollout          bar/24 7/1                   Eq.:  -0.598 ( -0.958)
       0.295 0.048 0.002 - 0.705 0.268 0.028 CL  -0.730 CF  -0.598
      [0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.007]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736285877 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

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[Zorba]

Thanks for the rollouts, ah_clem! That difference is bigger than I expected it to be. Probably our recube leverage widens the gap, as after B/18 we can quickly get to a good recube.