Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 12 Herd to play

[stog]

unfortunately elmicho danced on the Bar with a 5 3 ,, now we too have a 5 3

[stog]

i'll leave this vote open for a while as it is a disputed one

Spoiler

i like 13/8 10/7 as it exerts most pressure and we have 2 anchors! (we can always recycle if hit) other plays disturb our solid anchors

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[Julia_H]

I'm going to restore the stalemate with 13/5. Given that we're going all-out to keep White off the board, we should keep going forward for now. However, we want to keep one of our builders back a bit. What we don't want is for White to leap clear with 62, 54 etc (nothing we can do about 64 now) and leave us struggling to get four men through an outfield dominated by enemy forces. We also need to let go of one anchor very soon, or we're going to have to make deep points and lose the ability to contain the straggler.

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

elmichos' blockade is weak enough that there's no need to spring a runner now.  So, bring another builder in range, and 13/5 looks more flexible while giving us a direct shot if he enters and leaps to the outfield.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Now, having read the other comments and looking at the votes I'd like to speak to the merits of 13/5 vs  13/8 10/7:

1) Both appear to aim 3 builders at the open four point, but since we will happily break the 7 to make a homeboard point or hit loose the spare on the 7 is redundant.  13/5 effectively gives us an extra builder.

2) a blot on the 8 can be hit with 62 and 44 while the blot on the 10 can only be hit with 64.  Why give up an extra hitting number? Well, actually, maybe we would rather be hit if he escapes to preserve timing, so this may be a wash.

3) And as Julia pointed out, leaving a checker back on the 10 point means we will have the opportunity to hit him if he leaps out into the outfield with 62 or 54.

I think this all adds up to 13/5 being the better play.

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[socksey]

Spoiler

13/5 was my first thought and I still think that is best for all the reasons stated already.   

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socksey



There are few things in life more heartwarming than to be welcomed by a cat. ~Tay Hohoff

[dorbel]

Spoiler

In the spirit of the thing I haven't (yet) submitted this position to XG. I like 23/18, 13/10. This play attempts to switch out of the backgame that we can't time and make the 18pt, through which we can recycle checkers. Note too that the 10pt is six pips away from the 4pt escape hatch, always a good point to make. Basically this position has two alternate strategies, trying to close out (or prime) the opponent's straggler versus making some progress at the back. Given that a closeout or even a prime isn't possible while we have four men back, I like the second plan, preparing for a long positional struggle in a game that has to be played to a finish.

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[Zorba]

Spoiler

I agree with dorbel, 23/18 13/10 looks like a very good combination move, that works well on containing the backman, as well as make sure we don't end up with 4 men back on lower anchors with very bad timing, when we can't contain the backman anymore.

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[socksey]

Hmmmmmmmmm..........since the grand pubahs have spoken, it gives me pause to reconsider. 

Spoiler

Since Zorba and I were just having a conversation in which he stated intermediate players tend to play safe, when that is not always the best move

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Now I'm not so sure........

socksey



The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now. ~ Chinese Proverb

[ah_clem]

Hmmmmmmmmm..........since the grand pubahs have spoken, it gives me pause to reconsider. 

I doubt there's a lot of equity at stake here.  I'm pretty sure 13/5 is superior to 13/8 10/7, but springing a runner while elmicho only has half a roll to hit it while blocking sixes from the four-point is a viable play.  I just don't think there's any urgency to getting the runners moving right now (any 4,5 or 6 allows us to leap out) and bringing another builder to the blitz seems like a better use of limited resources.

Which is to say that I'm not switching my vote, but I'm not adamantly opposed to the running play.

[dorbel]

We can't win this game by waiting on our anchors, getting a shot, hitting it and containing it, because we don't have enough timing for that, hence it is urgent to get our back checkers moving to try and find a playable position and bridge the huge gap between our front and rear forces. While the opponent is on the bar is a very good time to do this.

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

13/5 is clearly the best play if you know that you are going to shake a 61 next roll. (c:

But when you don't know that, the "combo" play of 23/18 13/10 is better according to XG.



XGID=a--B-BCB--A-dA---d-db-BB--:0:0:1:53:4:0:1:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X           O    |   | O  O     X  X    |
|             O    |   | O  O     X  X    |
|             O    |   | O                |
|             O    |   | O                |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  | O |                  |
| O                |   |                  |
| O                |   | X                |
| O              X |   | X  X     X       |
| O     X        X |   | X  X     X       |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 161  O: 143 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 53

    1. Rollout¹    23/18 13/10                  eq:-0.021
      Player:   49.81% (G:16.53% B:1.54%)
      Opponent: 50.19% (G:13.83% B:0.58%)
      Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.026..-0.016) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 19 minutes 19 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    23/15                        eq:-0.086 (-0.065)
      Player:   46.97% (G:15.97% B:1.38%)
      Opponent: 53.03% (G:18.73% B:0.97%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.092..-0.080) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 19 minutes 56 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    13/5                         eq:-0.093 (-0.072)
      Player:   46.44% (G:17.66% B:1.42%)
      Opponent: 53.56% (G:16.94% B:0.75%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.099..-0.087) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 16 minutes 35 seconds

    4. Rollout¹    23/18 10/7                   eq:-0.115 (-0.093)
      Player:   45.30% (G:12.94% B:0.90%)
      Opponent: 54.70% (G:16.85% B:0.65%)
      Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.120..-0.109) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 16 minutes 55 seconds

    5. Rollout¹    13/8 10/7                    eq:-0.142 (-0.121)
      Player:   43.98% (G:14.78% B:1.24%)
      Opponent: 56.02% (G:16.49% B:0.77%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.148..-0.136) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 16 minutes 21 seconds


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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