News:

All new Fibsboard.com for 2011 --" your unofficial Forum for all fings FIBS."
New Membergroups, new boards including topical discussions, Campaigns, Culture and Gossip. Photo Galleries, Forum Backgammon vs Top Guest, and much much more.........faster and improved, with sas :)

Main Menu

Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 3 Move 5 elmicho to move

Started by stog, January 22, 2014, 10:29:31 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

stog


elmicho

This is tricky - I think.
I'm 4-away and can benefit from a gammon, so I'm inclined to seek those positions and play 15/11, 13/8. Problem is the herd has 17/36 to hit and has a 3-point board that will eat my pip-lead and most likely force me leave another shot later - if they hit.
The ugly 15/6 is safe for the moment and gives me possibility try to leap to the outfield with 62, 63 and 64, but I really dislike the loss of flexibility in that position.
I haven't got a clue here, can I use my lifeline now?

stog

15/11, 13/8. or 15/6 ? would you like us to vote -- i can put up a poll if you want?

elmicho

Ha ha - thanks stog, very kind - but no thanks   :o)


I have reread the insightful article by Kit W:  http://www.bkgm.com/articles/GOL/Aug99/fivept.htm
once again. It is a must-read for any player who is just slightly serious about his/her play, as the problems will apply to almost every match you ever play. In this game the problem at hand is spot-on. After reading what Kit wrote, I feel more inclined to play the 'pretty' 15/11, 13/8 as I can use all 4 points from a gammon and only risk 1. But looking at my home, it seems pretty obvious that the herd is likely to get an advanced anchor and thereby minimizing my chances of getting a gammon. With Kit's article fresh in mind, I wonder if it wouldn't have been better to take the anchor with b/21, 24/20 on the herd's last move - I would have loved any roll to hit or point on my 5- or 4-point.
With my gammon-chances ruduced to almost nothing, I tend to favor the ugly 15/6 and go for a 4-3 score which more or less is a 50-50 chance.
Perhabs this position calls for the same kind of play as a doublematchpointer.

Here goes - (I hate to do it)
Move: 15/6

ah_clem

The runner is stuck, so Pottling is out of the question.

15/6 is safe, but makes an ugly stack on the 6 point.

15/11 13/8 exposes the blot to a double shot without accomplishing much - making the 11 point won't do squat for you, so why take a chance to slot it?

I'd make the action play here - 13/4*.  It slots a point you want to make, unstacks the midpoint, and gains a tempo because the herd has to use half of our roll to get off the bar.  gamon losses are meaningless for you.  The main drawback is that you are ahead in the race and we have the better board so "safe" plays should be favored.  So maybe the ugly 15/6 is better.

I'll roll it out.

ah_clem

XGR++

Spoiler


15/6 is butt-ugly, but XGR++ likes it best.


XGID=-a--BBB-B-a-dD---bbeAA--A-:1:1:-1:54:4:1:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| X        X  X  O |   | O  O           X |
|                O |   | O  O           X |
|                O |   |                X |
|                O |   |                X |
|                O |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                O |
|                  |   |                O | +---+
|          X  X  X |   |    X           O | | 2 |
| O        X  X  X |   |    X     O     O | +---+
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pip count  X: 163  O: 151 X-O: 4-1/5
Cube: 2, X own cube
O to play 54

    1. XG Roller++ 15/6                         eq:+0.028
      Player:   42.93% (G:8.10% B:0.23%)
      Opponent: 57.07% (G:14.30% B:0.46%)

    2. XG Roller++ 15/11 13/8                   eq:-0.053 (-0.082)
      Player:   39.20% (G:7.77% B:0.28%)
      Opponent: 60.80% (G:16.45% B:0.72%)

    3. XG Roller++ 13/4*                        eq:-0.073 (-0.101)
      Player:   37.02% (G:8.91% B:0.44%)
      Opponent: 62.98% (G:20.65% B:1.34%)

    4. XG Roller++ 15/11 6/1*                   eq:-0.094 (-0.123)
      Player:   37.49% (G:7.44% B:0.20%)
      Opponent: 62.51% (G:18.83% B:0.95%)




eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2




[close]