FFM17 Game 3 Move 20 Herd to play 11

[Julia_H]

11...

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I only see two viable options: 16/14(2) or 9/7(2).

The race is close, so we need to keep the blockade in place. 16/14(2) blocks sixes and will allow our runners to more easily slip past elmicho's outfield checkers, but maybe we want him to be forced to run off the anchor with a six  and to hang back to whack him when he is forced off the midpoint.  Also, the gap on the bar point may be a problem when bearing in.

Seems to me that making the bar point will make 6s (other than 65 & 66) play awkwardly for elmicho and that 16/14(2) does not  present the same level of awkward rolls.  In fact rolls like 54 and 43 play nicely for him after 16/14(2) and awkwardly after making the bar.  I'll make the bar.

9/7(2)

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[KDP]

Spoiler

i would play 16-14(2) and just bring our 2 stragglers closer to home.  you might want to also look at 16-15(2) 8-6 but i think bringing our 2 outermost checkers in is better.

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[Zorba]

Spoiler

16/14(2) for me with 16/15(2) 8/6 second. Our main goals are to keep blocking el_micho for as long as possible, and to get our checkers safely home. Moving up the backcheckers goes a long way towards that. 16/15(2) 8/6 is a compromise play, making it harder to get the backmen home but also making it harder for el_micho to clear the mid. The 8/6 is okay and the position remains flexible. I think getting the backmen home is top priority, so I prefer 16/14(2).

Other considerations: Hitting el_micho isn't always that great with the blot on our ace, and el_micho having the better board, plus it might give el_micho some extra timing he needs for his threepoint game.

9/7(2) gives el_micho sixes to escape, the best number to escape with, probably for the rest of the game. It also leaves us with the backcheckers stranded and a builder on the furthest point of the blockade, which is quite inflexible and makes our next moves harder. What are we going to do for an encore? The later bear-in after 9/7(2) might be slightly easier but it's not very significant. Bearing in the 9 and 8pt vs. the 3pt anchor is not so different from bearing in the 8 and 7pt vs. the 3pt. anchor.

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Moving up the runners is best, with the compromise play a close second.  Although making the bar point gives elmicho more awkward rolls, it's a .05 error.



XGID=-A-bCBB-CB--b---B--bbbbab-:1:1:1:11:4:1:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|          X       |   | O  O  O  O  O  O |
|          X       |   | O  O  O  O     O |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|             X    |   |       X          | +---+
| O        X  X    |   | X  X  X  O       | | 2 |
| O        X  X    |   | X  X  X  O     X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 109  O: 110 X-O: 4-1/5
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 11

    1. Rollout¹    16/14(2)                     eq:+0.379
      Player:   71.03% (G:5.88% B:0.05%)
      Opponent: 28.97% (G:2.00% B:0.05%)
      Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.375..+0.382) - [99.9%]
      Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    16/15(2) 8/6                 eq:+0.369 (-0.010)
      Player:   71.45% (G:8.56% B:0.35%)
      Opponent: 28.55% (G:2.86% B:0.15%)
      Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.365..+0.373) - [0.1%]
      Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    8/7(2) 8/6                   eq:+0.342 (-0.037)
      Player:   70.72% (G:10.53% B:0.30%)
      Opponent: 29.28% (G:3.47% B:0.14%)
      Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.337..+0.346) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds

    4. Rollout¹    9/7(2)                       eq:+0.325 (-0.053)
      Player:   69.84% (G:8.87% B:0.36%)
      Opponent: 30.16% (G:3.41% B:0.09%)
      Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.321..+0.330) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 30 seconds

    5. Rollout¹    9/8 9/6                      eq:+0.209 (-0.169)
      Player:   63.70% (G:7.71% B:0.15%)
      Opponent: 36.30% (G:3.09% B:0.10%)
      Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.205..+0.213) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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