FFM17 Game 3 Move 25 elmicho to play 54

[Julia_H]

Another stay-or-go decision:

[elmicho]

Spot on Julia

13/4 leaves me strandet with only 4's to improve, save an unlikely hit  while clearing your 11-point. I lead the race 90 - 98 after moving, which is relevant also, exposing the blot on the 13-point to 12/36 is a risk to that asset.
22/18, 13/8 and 22/13 will give me a more flexible position, where I will have more numbers to escape and a chance to hit. Since I am in the lead, white will be more motivated to hit loose and I have a closed board.
13/8, 22/18 will expose my outfield checker to 7, 2 and 1's to hit on the bar with 6/36 to hit in return in best case.
22/13 offers a minor holding on the checkers on the 11-point and leave the strandet commando-trouper with 4's to leap. White will only point with 33, 65, 61, 51 and 22 - 11 and 21 offers a hit + bury the checker on the 24-point. So 11/36 - that's good odds. 52 and 62 will also enable white to hit and skip to the 1-point. leaving 2 or 4 numbers to enter and hit in return and 3's and 4's to enter and have a new try. Better at least - I think. After 22/13 white will have a bigger problem bringing their checkers in safe - so I go for that.

Move: 22/13