FFM Game 1 Move 18: Herd to play 62

[Julia_H]

This one might be rather predictable...

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

The obvious play is to cover the blot and safely play 6/4.

The interesting play is to cover the blot and bring another down daring him to hit. If he hits from the ten point, he wrecks his timing.  If he hits from the five, he not only wrecks his timing but also abandons the back game, transitioning into a deuce-point game, although one with lots of action still to come.

World class players would know immediately whether the safe or the wild play was best.  I am not a world class player, so I'll make the prosaic obvious move, but I won't be at all surprised if the wild move is better.

13/7 6/4

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

XG four-ply analysis puts the two candidate moves almost even - the wild play is a .009 error.

Full rollout tells a different story with the quiet play ahead by .046

Against a clearly inferior opponent the wild play may be best as it gives them the chance to make more errors.  Is hitting even correct?  I'm not sure and a poor player would most likely leak a lot of equity.  Of course, we're not playing a fencepost so the quiet play is in order.


XGID=--bBBbDAB-a-bD----adab----:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X              O |   | O  O  O          |
| X                |   | O     O          |
| X                |   | O                |
| X                |   | O                |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   | X                |
|                  |   | X                |
| O           X    |   | X  O  X  X  O    |
| O     O     X  X |   | X  O  X  X  O    |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 113  O: 171 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 62

    1. Rollout¹    13/7 6/4                     eq:+0.634
      Player:   62.82% (G:19.49% B:0.87%)
      Opponent: 37.18% (G:4.47% B:0.20%)
      Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.620..+0.648) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 5 minutes 48 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    13/11 13/7                   eq:+0.588 (-0.046)
      Player:   61.78% (G:21.66% B:1.20%)
      Opponent: 38.22% (G:5.81% B:0.24%)
      Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.573..+0.603) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 6 minutes 00 second

¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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