FFM Game 1 Move 39: Herd to play 21

[Julia_H]

The Herd can go for either back man (or not, if you prefer). Which one takes your fancy?

[stog]

Spoiler

i've just edited the vote to allow folks to remove their vote (checkbox); i changed my vote from 4/2* 3/2 to 7/6*/4 which leaves no shot and might also allow us to close out 2 point later

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[ah_clem]

7/6*/4 leaves no shots, but helps his timing while leaving a difficult bear in

7/4 also leaves no shots and doesn't really change his timing all that much, and also leaves a difficult bear in.

8/6* 7/6  only leaves 26 and 53 to hit for a total of four shots.  This probably wins the most gammons.

4/2* 3/2 fills in the gap and basically gets the rear runner out of our hair.  It leaves  52 51 61 and 62 to hit for a total of 8 shots. I like the aesthetics of this play, but the 8 shots seem like a lot. when I can leave none.

I'm going to go with 8/6* 7/6, but I really have no idea.  Good problem.

[dorbel]

I went for 7/6*/4, leaving no shots and giving him nine dancing numbers. The other plays don't seem to me to gain enough to justify leaving so many shots.

[Julia_H]

I'll leave the thread open for one hour more... anyone want to reconsider or give another argument before I have to figure out a casting vote?

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

I muffed the shot count.  Both pointing plays leave six shots which is a bit much when we can leave none.  The pick and pass play will make it a little bit harder to clear the eight next roll, but even if we roll poorly Chris still has to hit.  As Dorbel points out, making the six is antipositional since we'll just have to clear it soon - with an equal shot count pointing on the two is clearly better than pointing on the six.

The top two plays are reasonably close, but paying later by leaving no shots comes out on top. 7/4 without hitting is rather pointless, but still better than pointing on the six.





XGID=-CaFC-aAB---------abbbbbb-:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|                O |   | O  O  O  O  O  O | +---+
|                  |   | O  O  O  O  O  O | | 2 |
|                  |   |                  | +---+
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |          6       |
|                  |   |          X       |
|                  |   |       X  X     X |
|             X    |   |       X  X     X |
|             X  X |   | O     X  X  O  X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 56  O: 91 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 21

    1. Rollout¹    7/6* 6/4                     eq:+0.494
      Player:   74.11% (G:4.92% B:0.05%)
      Opponent: 25.89% (G:1.77% B:0.05%)
      Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.491..+0.498) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 27.1 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    4/2* 3/2                     eq:+0.467 (-0.028)
      Player:   71.23% (G:6.68% B:0.06%)
      Opponent: 28.77% (G:1.73% B:0.02%)
      Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.464..+0.469) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 24.4 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    7/4                          eq:+0.438 (-0.056)
      Player:   73.53% (G:1.34% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 26.47% (G:1.49% B:0.03%)
      Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.435..+0.441) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 22.0 seconds

    4. Rollout¹    8/6* 7/6                     eq:+0.431 (-0.063)
      Player:   68.15% (G:8.57% B:0.11%)
      Opponent: 31.85% (G:0.71% B:0.01%)
      Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.428..+0.434) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 26.3 seconds

    5. 1-ply       4/2* 2/1                     eq:-0.032 (-0.527)
      Player:   58.25% (G:2.62% B:0.02%)
      Opponent: 41.75% (G:5.63% B:0.03%)


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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