FFM19 Game 2 Move 4: Herd to play 11

[Julia_H]

As often with 11 there's plenty of legal moves. If you don't see your favourite here, do shout!

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Enter and make the five point for sure.  Then for the final ace I think it's best to split the runners.  8/7 is too loose and 6/5 does nothing for us.  Splitting gets the runners moving and puts pressure on the blot on his five point.

bar/23 6/5(2)

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

XG  likes slotting our bar point more than splitting. Not by a lot, but by enough.

XGID=-b----E-D---dDa--b-ca-b-AA:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X  O        O    |   | O  O     O     X |
| X           O    |   | O        O       |
| X                |   | O                |
| X                |   |                  |
|                  | X |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   | X                |
| O           X    |   | X                |
| O           X    |   | X                |
| O           X    |   | X              O |
| O           X    |   | X              O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 163  O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11

    1. Rollout¹    Bar/24 8/7 6/5(2)            eq:-0.017
      Player:   50.04% (G:15.31% B:0.90%)
      Opponent: 49.96% (G:17.10% B:1.16%)
      Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.034..+0.000) - [99.2%]
      Duration: 7 minutes 07 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    Bar/23 6/5(2)                eq:-0.044 (-0.027)
      Player:   49.74% (G:14.44% B:0.76%)
      Opponent: 50.26% (G:17.61% B:0.70%)
      Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.059..-0.029) - [0.8%]
      Duration: 6 minutes 39 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    Bar/24 6/5(3)                eq:-0.108 (-0.091)
      Player:   47.86% (G:14.10% B:0.78%)
      Opponent: 52.14% (G:18.20% B:0.90%)
      Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.124..-0.092) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 6 minutes 38 seconds

    4. Rollout¹    Bar/23 8/7(2)                eq:-0.282 (-0.265)
      Player:   44.11% (G:11.58% B:0.55%)
      Opponent: 55.89% (G:19.52% B:0.83%)
      Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.298..-0.266) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 7 minutes 01 second

    5. 2-ply       Bar/24 8/7(2) 6/5            eq:-0.249 (-0.232)
      Player:   44.36% (G:11.37% B:0.51%)
      Opponent: 55.64% (G:19.14% B:1.54%)


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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