FFM19 Game 2 Move 17: Herd cube action?

[Julia_H]

Another tie... this is democracy in action! Never mind, I think I know what's coming next. Unless the takers (are there any?) make themselves known reasonably quickly I'll move this one along.

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

A poorly timed ace point game and a takepoint of 17% - maybe the AtS takepoint is low enough to take, but I'll let this one go.  Pass.

[close]

[NIHILIST]

If Stevie Wonder were our opponent it's still a pass.


Bob

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The live cube non-gammon adjusted take point is 17.6% and we have that.  But the gammon losses push us way into pass territory.  Chris is almost too good, but he's not there yet.  Good cube.

Julia, can you post the .sgf file?  I'll generate some match stats.



XGID=--BA-BBCC-a-b-a-b--cb-bbB-:0:0:-1:00:2:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|    O     O       |   | O  O     O  O  X |
|          O       |   | O  O     O  O  X |
|                  |   | O                |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|             X  X |   |                  |
| O           X  X |   | X  X        X    |
| O     O     X  X |   | X  X     X  X    |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count  X: 122  O: 108 X-O: 2-0/5
Cube: 1
O on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
  Player Winning Chances:   81.51% (G:11.42% B:0.35%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 18.49% (G:1.61% B:0.05%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances:   81.91% (G:12.12% B:0.42%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 18.09% (G:2.00% B:0.17%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.710, Double=+1.441

Cubeful Equities:
       No double:     +0.970 (-0.030)
       Double/Take:   +1.377 (+0.377)
       Double/Pass:   +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
  Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.968..+0.972)
  Confidence Double:    ± 0.010 (+1.367..+1.387)

  Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
  Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

  Duration: 12 minutes 58 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]

[stiefnu]

The live cube non-gammon adjusted take point is 17.6% and we have that.  But the gammon losses push us way into pass territory.

The estimated gammon losses from a double/take are a shade over 12%. What % would you reckon have been low enough for a take on this occasion?

Steve

[ah_clem]

The estimated gammon losses from a double/take are a shade over 12%. What % would you reckon have been low enough for a take on this occasion?

Our live gammonless takepoint is 17.6%. We are 18.1% to win, so that leaves a margin of .5%.

The price of gammon on a 2-cube for us is .73, so I'd say we'd need to get the gammon rate down to about .7% to take.

The above calculations done with the help of XG Cube Information.  I can't do this stuff in my head otb.

[Julia_H]

.sgf attached...