FFM19 Game 3 Move 10: Herd to play 11

[Julia_H]

I think the Herd will be very pleased to see that roll appear!

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Hit his homeboard blot or point on his head on our four point?  Tough call, and my hunch is that there's a lot of equity difference even if i can't tell which is better.

POH gives him nine dancing rolls and a dance is a double, maybe even a cash.  But hitting on his side puts us ahead in the race while preparing to spring our runner.

If we poh, the homeboard blot will still be there after 66 65 64 63 62 61 55 54 53 44 43 and  33. That's 19 if  I counted correctly.  Hitting on the 21 is probably the DMP play, but I'll go for poh AtS.

6/4*(2)

[close]

[KDP]

Spoiler

6-4* (2)  makes a point and puts him on the bar.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Four ply analysis is too close to call.  XGR++ says the Herd's play is better by a slim .024.  Full rollout says pointing on the four-point is best by a healthy margin (.050) .



XGID=----aBDbB--AbC---cBcca--A-:0:0:1:11:2:1:0:5:10

    1. 4-ply       6/4*(2)                      eq:+0.050
      Player:   52.88% (G:16.03% B:0.60%)
      Opponent: 47.12% (G:12.28% B:0.40%)

    2. 4-ply       24/21* 6/5                   eq:+0.047 (-0.003)
      Player:   53.41% (G:13.97% B:0.45%)
      Opponent: 46.59% (G:11.91% B:0.41%)


    1. Rollout¹    6/4*(2)                      eq:+0.024
      Player:   53.18% (G:16.26% B:1.16%)
      Opponent: 46.82% (G:12.50% B:0.77%)
      Confidence: ±0.018 (+0.006..+0.043) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 25 minutes 57 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    24/21* 6/5                   eq:-0.026 (-0.050)
      Player:   52.79% (G:15.32% B:1.17%)
      Opponent: 47.21% (G:13.05% B:0.81%)
      Confidence: ±0.021 (-0.046..-0.005) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 27 minutes 53 seconds

¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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