Herd Cube Decision

[stog]

6 4 we danced

roman has cubed

do we take or do we drop?

[jeff]

Spoiler

We have pretty high gammon chances here. My observations (playing on FIBS) is that if you are a slight underdog, with gammon chances, you drop.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

We're slightly ahead in the race. (I'll spare the rant about playing with the pipcount off, suffice it to say I find it very annoying)

We are favored to enter and if we can spring the runner we'll be favorites.  Take.

[close]

[COsborne]

very big mistake not to take.  Roughly even pip count, low odds of Roman making a point, we're favored to come in.  All adds to taking.  I'm sorry, I don't know how to do the "spoiler" reply.

[jeff]

very big mistake not to take.  Roughly even pip count, low odds of Roman making a point, we're favored to come in.  All adds to taking.  I'm sorry, I don't know how to do the "spoiler" reply.

FYI (I personally don't care and only hide what I say because that seems to be the etiquette 'round here): When replying, do you see the yellow and black icon which is probably supposed to look like a hazard sign 2nd from the right of the second row of icons? Hover over that, the word "spoiler" should appear.

Highlight the text you don't want to spoil, then click that button.

[NIHILIST]

I never really grasped what the SPOILER is intended to spoil. Can't opponent simply click on the spoiler bar to see what's being hidden ?

Bob

[ah_clem]

I've always thought the spoiler tag was a waste of time, but every time it's come up I've been out-voted and told to use it. So I do.

The idea is to allow everyone to do their own work and make their own decisions if they want to without accidentally seeing other opinions first.  My take is that anyone can do that by simply not scrolling down, so the spoiler tag mostly serves to impede the conversation for those who want to discuss and share opinions.

I'll continue to place a spoiler tag around bot results, since that gives "the answer", but as for my spouting off I don't think I'm giving anything away if somebody sees that.

[COsborne]

Spoiler

Thanks Jeff and Ah_Clem...

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

A good approach in short matches is get some gammon chances and push the cube.  Here, Roman is only about 67% to win but he has about 25% gammon chances.  A clear cube.

For the Herd, 33% to win is enough for a take, even with the 25% gammons.  It may look scary, but we still have lots of chances.  The position is about even, the race is very even, and O has some threats to close us out while we have none. 1 of 3 PRaT is usually ND/T, but the gammons push this one to D.  A whopper to pass and a whopper with cheese to fail to cube.


XGID=---BCbCB----bD---abd-bb--A:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| X           O  O |   | O     O  O       |
| X              O |   | O     O  O       |
| X                |   | O                |
| X                |   | O                |
|                  | X |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   | X     X          |
| O              X |   | X  O  X  X       |
| O              X |   | X  O  X  X       |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count  X: 127  O: 126 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
O on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
  Player Winning Chances:   67.20% (G:24.32% B:0.27%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 32.80% (G:5.23% B:0.24%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances:   66.99% (G:26.05% B:0.35%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 33.01% (G:5.80% B:0.28%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.519, Double=+1.159

Cubeful Equities:
       No double:     +0.751 (-0.147)
       Double/Take:   +0.898
       Double/Pass:   +1.000 (+0.102)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
  Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.742..+0.761)
  Confidence Double:    ± 0.014 (+0.884..+0.912)

  Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
  Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

  Duration: 5 minutes 09 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]

[diane]

I've always thought the spoiler tag was a waste of time, but every time it's come up I've been out-voted and told to use it. So I do.

The idea is to allow everyone to do their own work and make their own decisions if they want to without accidentally seeing other opinions first.  My take is that anyone can do that by simply not scrolling down, so the spoiler tag mostly serves to impede the conversation for those who want to discuss and share opinions.

I'll continue to place a spoiler tag around bot results, since that gives "the answer", but as for my spouting off I don't think I'm giving anything away if somebody sees that.

I do like use of the spoiler option for that reason you state, its free and takes two seconds, so should not be a big deal.

Absolutely agree that it is for move chat only, pretty much anything else does not need to be hidden.

It is also likely that it only applies to the first couple of replies [that is how it is for me], since they are the only ones you can see without taking action - ie the ones that need to be covered up! It is just slightly easier to ask that everyone use it for game chat, rather than ask the first couple of posters to do it 

[ah_clem]

The thing is, if you go to the homepage of the site there's a list of the last ten or so posts with the first few lines of each.  It ignores the spoiler tag so whatever has been posted is displayed prominently on the front page of the site.   So, we're not really hiding anything. 

Also, for years I've been trying to get people interested in the forum match, but until you go to the trouble to get a login you can't click the spoiler tag to see what's been written.  So the entire thing is gibberish to potential new participants.  I'll continue to use it if  that's the consensus, but I don't see it doing anything helpful and it's actually a net negative.

[dorbel]

As the whole thing is a bit of fun and intended as a learning exercise, live as you want to live. Use the spoiler, don't use it, who really cares?

[diane]

Use the spoiler, don't use it, who really cares?

Predominently, the people trying to learn from fun. They dont want to load up the page and have other opinions visible, until they have had time to think about it.

As I say, it is mainly the top couple of replies, those further down the page arent automatically visible, and you have to choose to scroll down to see them.