fibsboard match 20 Game 1 Herd recube?

[stog]

ok

(ok roman and i played out a few moves on fibs chat using greedy bearoffs

the herd got lucky with a 66) so now we have roman to move 52

and us facing a recube decision methinks..

i'm pretty sure roman will take off his 5 and shift a 6 along so we have a possible re-cube coming up...

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I count 46-32 as the pipcount before roman moves.  It's 39-32 after the move. AtS, the recube live takepoint is about 20% or about the same as for money play.  A clear cube and a close cash according to the Trice count.

[close]

[stog]

herd wins a single game and 2 points.
The score (after 1 game) is: roman 0, herd 2 (match to 7 points).

[ah_clem]

rollout of cube decision

Spoiler

The live cube takepoint is about 20%.  Applying the Trice count: (32-5)/7 and rounding down gives 3, so Roman's point of last take is three pips behind in the race.  Since he has one more occupied point than us, we adjust his pipcount down by one to 38.  That puts him six pips behind, or more than the three he needs for the point of last take.

The Trice count above is for money play (takepoint around 22) so Roman could take being four pips behind (see variant), but not down by six.

The cube is obvious.




XGID=--BBCB-------------cbab-a-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|                  |   | O  O  O  O     O |
|                  |   | O  O     O       |
|                  |   | O                |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |       X          | +---+
|                  |   |    X  X  X  X    | | 2 |
|                  |   |    X  X  X  X    | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 32  O: 39 X-O: 0-0/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
  Player Winning Chances:   81.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 18.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:   81.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 18.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.628, Double=+1.301

Cubeful Equities:
       No redouble:     +0.899 (-0.101)
       Redouble/Take:   +1.218 (+0.218)
       Redouble/Pass:   +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
  Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.897..+0.901)
  Confidence Double:    ± 0.003 (+1.216..+1.221)

  Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
  Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

  Duration: 21.7 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

///////variant down by four pips instead of six ///////////////////////

XGID=--BBCB-------------bbbb-a-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|                  |   | O  O  O  O     O |
|                  |   | O  O  O  O       |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |       X          | +---+
|                  |   |    X  X  X  X    | | 2 |
|                  |   |    X  X  X  X    | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 32  O: 37 X-O: 0-0/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances:   76.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.533, Double=+1.106

Cubeful Equities:
       No redouble:     +0.816 (-0.167)
       Redouble/Take:   +0.982
       Redouble/Pass:   +1.000 (+0.018)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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