fibsboard match 20 Game 2 Herd MOVE 6

[stog]

herd 52

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

It's a blitz and the priorities are point > hit > build > escape in that order.  We can't point, so we hit. 8/3*

Then it's a question of what to do with the deuce.  Cleaning up with 8/6 is anti positional since that effectivly leaves with only one direct cover. 13/11 unstacks, makes a point and brings an 11th checker into the zone, but gives us only two covers.  11/9 gives us three covers.

Is four blots too many?  Maybe, but when he shakes one of the 20 non-hitting numbers we are in great shape.

11/9 8/3*

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[dahlin]

Wonder if this spoilerthingie works 

Spoiler

I would  agree with ah_clem if the cube was centered, and we had that as extra weapon.

But since we have already doubled, I like  'playing a little on both horses' and therefore I make the pretty play 13/11, 8/3*
- Don't think there can be much difference between those 2 moves - and as I see no other moves as serious candidates, its probably a matter of style from here.

[close]

[willywonka]

Spoiler

24/22 8/3* is a move worthy of serious consideration. If Roman flunks or otherwise cannot cover the blot on the 16-point, a roll of 6 by us next turn sends back another checker. That being said, I think 13/11 8/3* is best.

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The Herd's play comes out on top.  The other two vote-receiving plays are not very far behind.



XGID=---aBBC-B--AcD--acbe----A-:1:-1:1:52:2:0:0:7:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X        O  O  O |   | O              X | +---+
| X           O  O |   | O                | | 2 |
| X           O    |   | O                | +---+
| X                |   | O                |
|                  |   | O                |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
| O                |   | X                |
| O           X    |   | X  X  X          |
| O  X        X    |   | X  X  X  O       |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 139  O: 138 X-O: 2-0/7
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 52

    1. Rollout¹    13/11 8/3*                   eq:+0.048
      Player:   58.59% (G:24.63% B:0.90%)
      Opponent: 41.41% (G:9.81% B:0.98%)
      Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.037..+0.058) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 6 minutes 16 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    24/22 8/3*                   eq:+0.021 (-0.027)
      Player:   57.90% (G:24.36% B:0.94%)
      Opponent: 42.10% (G:11.00% B:0.95%)
      Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.011..+0.031) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 5 minutes 52 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    11/9 8/3*                    eq:+0.020 (-0.028)
      Player:   57.76% (G:23.96% B:0.80%)
      Opponent: 42.24% (G:10.15% B:1.15%)
      Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.010..+0.029) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 5 minutes 25 seconds

    4. 4-ply       24/22 13/8                   eq:-0.011 (-0.059)
      Player:   57.46% (G:16.58% B:0.36%)
      Opponent: 42.54% (G:8.13% B:0.29%)

    5. 3-ply       8/6 8/3*                     eq:-0.021 (-0.068)
      Player:   56.24% (G:22.07% B:0.57%)
      Opponent: 43.76% (G:9.45% B:0.44%)


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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