roman cubes

[stog]

roman cubes

due to your struggler on 23 i am inclined to double, after your move 10, Herd to play 11,
after some thinking i definitely double. I am up in the race, some attacking chances, and i have some time to wait rolling some doubles, all in all a good cube.

take or pass

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Our live takepoint AtS is about the same as for money.  Gammons look to be fairly rare here, so the question is do we have ~22% game winning chances?

If this was a straight race our point of last take would be 13 pips behind.  We're 16 pips behind, but  there's still contact so I think we can take with that deficit.

OTOH, letting him get to 2a 3a means we can push the cube earlier and often get to Crawford, so passing this isn't giving up very much.  I'll say take, but won't be surprised if it's a pass.

Take.

[close]

[ah_clem]

XGR++

Spoiler

A few more gammons than I expected, but we're still over 30% to win this game.  Massive take and a good double.



XGID=----BBBbDB------ccBcbb-A--:0:0:-1:00:2:2:0:7:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|          O  O  X |   | O  O  O     X    |
|          O  O  X |   | O  O  O          |
|          O  O    |   | O                |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|             X    |   |                  |
|             X    |   |                  |
|          X  X  O |   | X  X  X          |
|          X  X  O |   | X  X  X          |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count  X: 139  O: 123 X-O: 2-2/7
Cube: 1
O on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances:   68.19% (G:15.90% B:0.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.81% (G:5.23% B:0.18%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.462, Double=+0.972

Cubeful Equities:
       No double:     +0.689 (-0.034)
       Double/Take:   +0.723
       Double/Pass:   +1.000 (+0.277)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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