Fibsboard Forum Match 18 Game 1 Move 1 Herd to move

[stiefnu]

Welcome to Fibsboard Forum match 18 vs Bushsucksjuanz (5pts).

Thanks to juanz for being our 18th Guest player.

Say if you want more options.

Bear with me as I struggle with this new process.  One potential glitch, my version of Preview doesn't seem to allow me to set up the board size as directed in the instructions...

[stog]

preview, crop then
Tools/adjust size eg 5

then save as jpeg -- use slider to reduce to 25kb or thereabouts..


also once attached, go to the post and right click/copy image location-- and paste result in poll question title by clicking 'edit poll'

[img]http://www.fibsboard.com/index.php

and don't forget to allow removing votes by checking the box in edit poll

which preview have u got?

[socksey]

I request the board colors used by Julie, i.e., better contrasting colors.  I cannot read the numbers on the board to make my vote with the current board.

Thank you,

socksey



Every morning I awaken torn between the desire to save the world and the inclination to savor it. ~ E.B. White

[Zorba]

Welcome to the forum match BushSucks!

Thanks for facilitating stiefnu and good luck. I removed one 24-18 13-9 option in the vote as it was duplicated, and put a time limit of 2 days on the vote. You may want to reduce or increase that perhaps.

As for the move:

Spoiler

I nearly always play 24/18 13/9 when it's not a gammon-go situation. 8/2 6/2 is a good play though and has advantages when opponent is not used to it and makes structural errors playing against it (and you don't!). That will happen more often against weaker players, probably. Then again, 24/18 13/9 seems to lead to more complicated, longer games, which is also an advantage against these weaker players.

I consider both BushSucks and The Herd very good players, so I like 24/18 13/9 for (perhaps) more interesting gameplay.

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[stiefnu]

preview
tools/adjust size eg 5

then save as jpeg -- use slider to reduce to 25kb or thereabouts.

My version of Preview doesn't have that option. In Tools, I seem to have nothing about size.

I request the board colors used by Julie, i.e., better contrasting colors.  I cannot read the numbers on the board to make my vote with the current board.

If you click on the board in my posting (as opposed to the one with the poll) it should enlarge.  However, I'll see what I can do.

Thanks for facilitating stiefnu and good luck. I removed one 24-18 13-9 option in the vote as it was duplicated, and put a time limit of 2 days on the vote. You may want to reduce or increase that perhaps.

Thanks for that. I'll keep my eye on duplicate votes in future. Who was it that said "Vote early and vote often"? 

[stog]

oh yeah forgot-- when you copy image location from the attached file, click the pic first so u get the larger view to copy.

instead of preview you could use seashore -- a free open source image editor that works with os x -- you should be able to google a version that will work on your machine -- if u get any probs ask and i'll blast u a copy

re size -- as we are posting loads of game diagrams we need to constrain the image size if poss to 25-27kb or thereabuts as i am running out of backup server capacity etc

cheers

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Pointing (8/2 6/2) is best for money play.  It wins slightly fewer games than the split, but it wins quite a few more gammons. While the gammon price at 5a 5a is the usual .5 (same as for money), it increases to .65 once the cube is turned.  Which is to say that gammon are slightly more valuable AtS than for money, so make the play that wins more gammons.  That's 8/2 6/2.

The other two plays are certainly playable, and at other scores (DMP, gammon save, etc)  roll out as best.  Here, making the deuce should edge out the other two plays. Of course, we'll need to play aggressively to make sure we get all the gammons coming to us - if wwe don't then the othr plays would be better.

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[Zorba]

Spoiler

ah_clem, what's your source for this? I thought the jury was still out on this one (for money play and most likely also at 5-away both, since 24/18 13/9 also loses less gammons at a higher gammon value, so this compensates), with no more than a few thousandths of equity points between them.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

My source is the rollouts posted on Stick's site.

The two plays are very close, close enough that it's more a matter of style than one being better than the other.

BTW, the rollouts on Stick's site are from Snowie and gnu - after we settle on a move, I'll see what XG has to say.

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[KDP]

Spoiler

1st roll of the first game i would play 24-18, 13-9.  i dont like making the 2 pt this early and this gets things going on both sides of the board.

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[socksey]

LARGER does not improve contrast.  I still cannot read the numbers clearly.  I'll wait to vote until you change the board.............

socksey



Constant kindness can accomplish much. As the sun makes the ice melt, kindness causes misunderstanding, mistrust, and hostility to evaporate. ~ Albert Schweitzer

[ah_clem]

In the interests of getting this show on the road, I've changed my vote.  I almost always play P, so it will be instructive to see where S takes us. 

I'll post the XG book opening (which I haven't looked at yet) once the move is made.

[stiefnu]

LARGER does not improve contrast.  I still cannot read the numbers clearly.  I'll wait to vote until you change the board.

Hopefully this is clearer for you.  I'll leave this up for an further hour or so (now 16:20UTC)

Still haven't cracked the trick of getting the board into the poll section...

[Zorba]

stiefnu, right-click on the board image in your original post, choose "copy picture location" or "copy picture URL" or "copy link to picture" or something like that. Then you can paste this link between the IMG tags in your original poll (I just changed it, you can check it out to see what it looks like).

[stog]

and-- when you copy image location from the attached file in the finished post, click the pic first, so u get the larger view to copy.

have just edited it again, so u should see the initial image as larger than the attachment below

have sent you the seashore image sizing instructions stiefnu, and have referenced them in a post in the moderators board too

also added

Herd to move

to the title..

[socksey]

Thanks for changing the board, stiefnu!  That's much better.   

socksey



The best thing one can do when it's raining, is to let it rain. - Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The top three plays are exceedingly close AtS.  P (make the two point) comes out on top by by the narrowest of margins (67% confidence level). S (split to the 18 and bring one down from the midpoint) is next and only .001 behind.

Looking into the numbers, P wins more gammons (16.2 vs 13.9) but wins fewer games (49.8 vs 50.3), so it's not a choice of which is better, but what kind of game do you want to play.  I like to play an attacking/blitzing game in short matches (get some gammon chances and push the cube) so I almost always play P..   AtS this is a wash, but at other scores one would be clearly favored over the other.  At gammon go, P is the way to go.  At DMP or gammon save, R (run to the 14 point) wins more games and loses fewer gammons than either P or S.




XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:5:10

X:ah_clem   O:XG Roller+
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X           O    |   | O              X |
| X           O    |   | O              X |
| X           O    |   | O                |
| X                |   | O                |
| X                |   | O                |
|                  |BAR|                  |
| O                |   | X                |
| O                |   | X                |
| O           X    |   | X                |
| O           X    |   | X              O |
| O           X    |   | X              O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 167  O: 167 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 64

    1. Book¹       8/2 6/2                      eq:+0.013
      Player:   49.79% (G:16.18% B:1.03%)
      Opponent: 50.21% (G:14.67% B:0.75%)
      Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.010..+0.015) - [66.9%]

    2. Book¹       24/18 13/9                   eq:+0.012 (-0.001)
      Player:   50.33% (G:13.86% B:0.75%)
      Opponent: 49.67% (G:13.89% B:0.68%)
      Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.010..+0.014) - [33.1%]

    3. Book²       24/14                        eq:+0.004 (-0.009)
      Player:   50.58% (G:12.47% B:0.67%)
      Opponent: 49.42% (G:13.71% B:0.56%)
      Confidence: ±0.004 (0.000..+0.008) - [0.0%]

    4. Book³       24/20 13/7                   eq:-0.057 (-0.070)
      Player:   48.44% (G:13.83% B:0.75%)
      Opponent: 51.56% (G:14.22% B:0.73%)
      Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.064..-0.050) - [0.0%]

    5. Book4       24/20 24/18                  eq:-0.078 (-0.091)
      Player:   48.73% (G:11.23% B:0.49%)
      Opponent: 51.27% (G:14.22% B:0.49%)


¹Generated by Miran Tuhtan on 11/24/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
  62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Dice Seed: 1
  Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

²Generated by Miran Tuhtan on 11/24/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
  15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Dice Seed: 1
  Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
  10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Dice Seed: 38613390
  Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

4Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 5/21/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
  Analyzed in XG Roller++


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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