Spoiler
Various options here, with different trade-offs for simple wins vs. gammon wins. XG in this rollout has one of the most gammonish plays on top, 11/6 8/5 aiming at both the blot (potential anchor for us) on the acepoint and the open deucepoint. Next best and too close to call actually, is the play that wins most single games but with a lower gammon rate: 13/10 13/8, making two solid points in the outfield, so that safely clearing the mid later will be easier. dorbel's play is third and a small error.
1. Rollout¹ 11/6 8/5 eq:+1,057
Player : 80,71% (G:42,23% B:1,21%)
Opponent: 19,29% (G:2,49% B:0,22%)
Confidence: ± 0,005 (+1,052<E<+1,062)
Duration: 14 minutes 37 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/8 eq:+1,055 (-0,002)
Player : 82,03% (G:39,35% B:1,22%)
Opponent: 17,97% (G:2,21% B:0,19%)
Confidence: ± 0,005 (+1,050<E<+1,060)
Duration: 14 minutes 21 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 11/8 10/5 eq:+1,030 (-0,027)
Player : 80,60% (G:40,30% B:1,23%)
Opponent: 19,40% (G:2,56% B:0,20%)
Confidence: ± 0,005 (+1,025<E<+1,035)
Duration: 13 minutes 16 seconds
4. Rollout² 13/10 11/6 eq:+1,030 (-0,027)
Player : 80,36% (G:40,71% B:1,27%)
Opponent: 19,64% (G:2,69% B:0,31%)
Confidence: ± 0,014 (+1,016<E<+1,044)
Duration: 3 minutes 06 seconds
5. Rollout² 13/8 10/7 eq:+1,012 (-0,045)
Player : 79,78% (G:40,63% B:1,19%)
Opponent: 20,21% (G:2,88% B:0,31%)
Confidence: ± 0,014 (+0,998<E<+1,026)
Duration: 2 minutes 13 seconds
6. Rollout² 13/5 eq:+1,010 (-0,047)
Player : 79,98% (G:40,11% B:1,12%)
Opponent: 20,02% (G:2,74% B:0,35%)
Confidence: ± 0,014 (+0,996<E<+1,024)
Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds
7. Rollout² 13/8 11/8 eq:+1,008 (-0,049)
Player : 80,86% (G:37,98% B:1,10%)
Opponent: 19,14% (G:2,43% B:0,29%)
Confidence: ± 0,013 (+0,995<E<+1,021)
Duration: 2 minutes 20 seconds
8. Rollout² 11/6 10/7 eq:+0,993 (-0,064)
Player : 78,52% (G:42,66% B:1,16%)
Opponent: 21,48% (G:3,32% B:0,31%)
Confidence: ± 0,015 (+0,978<E<+1,008)
Duration: 1 minute 59 seconds
¹ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red
² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross