I also made the double whopper hit... I had expected a bigger difference in wins and a smaller one in gammons. I got perfect hindsight though ;) I guess the thing here is that:
- We have a well-timed acepoint game, that will win about 20% of games at the cost of 20% gammon losses
- Running off that anchor, it's not likely that we'll make it again anytime, so we lose a big part of those wins
- We're not ready to make a checker dance often, or to contain it, so the hit is not at all decisive
- By trying to contain or slap around dorbel's backchecker anyhow, we nearly always run huge gammon risks against his 5pt board
- The 3pt blot is a huge liability right away, but the other two blots should be cleaned up ASAP too, which is hard to do all at once, while also trying to contain or attack dorbel
- Chances at picking up a second blot are very remote
1. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/3 eq:-0,802
Player : 19,07% (G:1,21% B:0,09%)
Opponent: 80,93% (G:21,17% B:1,53%)
Confidence: ± 0,006 (-0,808<E<-0,796)
Duration: 3 minutes 58 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/3 eq:-0,805 (-0,003)
Player : 18,94% (G:1,19% B:0,09%)
Opponent: 81,06% (G:21,03% B:1,44%)
Confidence: ± 0,006 (-0,811<E<-0,799)
Duration: 3 minutes 04 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 13/7 10/7 eq:-0,815 (-0,014)
Player : 18,60% (G:1,17% B:0,09%)
Opponent: 81,40% (G:21,37% B:1,44%)
Confidence: ± 0,006 (-0,821<E<-0,809)
Duration: 2 minutes 55 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 24/15* eq:-1,011 (-0,209)
Player : 25,45% (G:4,44% B:0,40%)
Opponent: 74,55% (G:51,28% B:2,74%)
Confidence: ± 0,008 (-1,019<E<-1,003)
Duration: 8 minutes 37 seconds
¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross