Game 1, move 11, dorbel 5-3

[Zorba]

Dorbel played two down from the mid 13/10 13/11, The Herd danced once more with a 6-3.

Now it's dorbel to play 5-3.

XGID=-----BC-C-B-dCaa-a-bbbb-AA:1:1:-1:53:0:0:0:5:10
GNUBg Id: bJuUBwCwc8YBUA:EYG1AAAAAAAA

[dorbel]

I could just bring two more men down, but I need builders for the 2 and 1 pts more than I need checkers to make the bar.
I like 11/8, 10/5. The 8pt is a good solid point if I have to switch to priming, as well of course being useful to make a better point with 6-6, 3-3 or 1-1. The closeout is what I am after here and I'll take risks to get it if I have to, usually hitting loose on the 2 or 1pts and owning the 8pt provides a lot of security for that plan. 11/8, 10/5

[Zorba]

XG rollout:

Spoiler

Various options here, with different trade-offs for simple wins vs. gammon wins.  XG in this rollout has one of the most gammonish plays on top, 11/6 8/5 aiming at both the blot (potential anchor for us) on the acepoint and the open deucepoint. Next best and too close to call actually, is the play that wins most single games but with a lower gammon rate: 13/10 13/8, making two solid points in the outfield, so that safely clearing the mid later will be easier. dorbel's play is third and a small error.

    1. Rollout¹    11/6 8/5                     eq:+1,057
      Player  : 80,71% (G:42,23% B:1,21%)
      Opponent: 19,29% (G:2,49% B:0,22%)
      Confidence: ± 0,005 (+1,052<E<+1,062)
      Duration: 14 minutes 37 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    13/10 13/8                   eq:+1,055 (-0,002)
      Player  : 82,03% (G:39,35% B:1,22%)
      Opponent: 17,97% (G:2,21% B:0,19%)
      Confidence: ± 0,005 (+1,050<E<+1,060)
      Duration: 14 minutes 21 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    11/8 10/5                    eq:+1,030 (-0,027)
      Player  : 80,60% (G:40,30% B:1,23%)
      Opponent: 19,40% (G:2,56% B:0,20%)
      Confidence: ± 0,005 (+1,025<E<+1,035)
      Duration: 13 minutes 16 seconds

    4. Rollout²    13/10 11/6                   eq:+1,030 (-0,027)
      Player  : 80,36% (G:40,71% B:1,27%)
      Opponent: 19,64% (G:2,69% B:0,31%)
      Confidence: ± 0,014 (+1,016<E<+1,044)
      Duration: 3 minutes 06 seconds

    5. Rollout²    13/8 10/7                    eq:+1,012 (-0,045)
      Player  : 79,78% (G:40,63% B:1,19%)
      Opponent: 20,21% (G:2,88% B:0,31%)
      Confidence: ± 0,014 (+0,998<E<+1,026)
      Duration: 2 minutes 13 seconds

    6. Rollout²    13/5                         eq:+1,010 (-0,047)
      Player  : 79,98% (G:40,11% B:1,12%)
      Opponent: 20,02% (G:2,74% B:0,35%)
      Confidence: ± 0,014 (+0,996<E<+1,024)
      Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds

    7. Rollout²    13/8 11/8                    eq:+1,008 (-0,049)
      Player  : 80,86% (G:37,98% B:1,10%)
      Opponent: 19,14% (G:2,43% B:0,29%)
      Confidence: ± 0,013 (+0,995<E<+1,021)
      Duration: 2 minutes 20 seconds

    8. Rollout²    11/6 10/7                    eq:+0,993 (-0,064)
      Player  : 78,52% (G:42,66% B:1,16%)
      Opponent: 21,48% (G:3,32% B:0,31%)
      Confidence: ± 0,015 (+0,978<E<+1,008)
      Duration: 1 minute 59 seconds


¹ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red


eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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