Cant think of anything we would want to do other than these - so what is the vote for Forum, blue, here?
ttsJAAYz2wYDIA:UYmpADAAGAAA
Spoiler
You can make a good case for either of these plays; 13/8 leaves four shots but keeps our four prime, while 8/5, 8/6 leaves no shots and creates two spare checkers to play with if we survive next turn. I like the spares after breaking the 8pt, but who knows.However, as we are going on the bar after 29 numbers and seeing him disappear with 6-6, I'm not too hopeful whatever we play!
Spoiler
What about 5/2 5/3?
I was looking at that and it has the advantage of leaving no shots and keeping most of the blockade intact. The problem is, by providing counterplay it practically invites a loose hit on our ace point runner. It also facilitates blitzxz running one of his backmen.
As for the two plays offered for consideration, I think I'd like to maintain the blockade. Granted, it gives him another 4 good numbers, but having a four-prime will pay dividends if we manage to leap.
13/8
rollout
Spoiler
Clearing the eight point is a .077 error vs moving a checker down from the midpoint. I would've thought the two moves were closer. (5/3 5/2 is a whopper, in case you were wondering)
1. Rollout 13/8 Eq.: -0.385
0.308 0.092 0.004 - 0.692 0.390 0.011 CL -0.385 CF -0.385
[0.002 0.004 0.001 - 0.002 0.008 0.002 CL 0.003 CF 0.003]
2. Rollout 8/6 8/5 Eq.: -0.462 ( -0.077)
0.269 0.104 0.005 - 0.731 0.353 0.005 CL -0.462 CF -0.462
[0.002 0.004 0.001 - 0.002 0.009 0.001 CL 0.003 CF 0.003]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 851510817 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]