Game 5, move 8 : Forum 3-2

[diane]

Well, rkb dances again - and our dice seem stuck too...

rkb rolled 5-4   bNvAMQDMtoMBUA:MIGyACAAGAAA

Forum, blue, get another go at 3-2

zLaDAVBs28AxAA:cImpACAAGAAA

[stog]

Spoiler

i like 16/14 16/13 as the one blot duplicates an entry 2, and if the 22 hits we are still entering a possible board. if we delay releasing the 16 point we could end up being hit later when he has a stronger board. i quite like 16/13 13/11, and 13/7 too!

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

We don't want to break  our blockade, so the moves must be made from the 16 and 13 points.  We could slot a sixth blockade point with 13/8, but I think we're better off clearing our back point.  Moving both leaves a shot, but it duplicates twos, so only 22 and 21 hit.  Moving both midpoint checkers leaves the same number of shots and creates more point making combos, but it still leaves us with the back point to clear, along with three blots to clean up.  Granted, he has a checker on the bar so spreading 'em around is worth considering, but I think the utility of clearing the back point outweighs the benefits of the other plays. 

16/14 16/13

[close]

[spielberg]

Spoiler

13 8 was my choice. I'll be very interested to see gnubg's verdict after we've voted as it's almost never right to voluntarily take a 7 point position. It feels right tho' to limit his chance of a hit next roll. I really don't want to get hit and think it's worth taking the risk on our 16 point to cut his odds of a hit by a third. So - minimise his chances of a hit limiting him to an 18/1 shot rather than the  12/1 one he gets with our 16 13 16 12. 13 8 also gives us a much better chance of making a six point prime next roll of course

[close]

[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

13 -8, continue the priming theme. It leaves only 2 hitting numbers vs 3 and is the best single move to gin the game out.

In my opinion clearing the 16 point now is irrelevant; if he anchors up we're doubling him out anyway, aren't we ?

[close]

Bob

[diane]

Eeeek, tied with nine voters...and no one agrees with me 

Lets see if one side or the other can persuade me to change my mind 

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

The vote is currently tied between slotting a sixth prime point or moving both checkers form the 16.

Here's a second take on the difference:

If rkb fans, the positions are about equal.  If he enters without hitting, likewise. 

But suppose he gets lucky and enters and hits.  If we play 13/8 and he gets lucky with 61, he'll hit and escape a checker;  if we play  16/14 16/13 a lucky roll leaves him with two checkers still stuck behind a blockade.  So, slotting the 8 allows him a much "luckier" option.  The other move may allow more hits, but they're less advantageous to rkb.

So, I'm sticking with 16/14 16/13, although my hunch is that there's not much difference between the two.

Now, we just need to get the person who voted 16/11 to switch to one of the two leading moves to break the tie.

[close]

[diane]

Spoiler

Now, we just need to get the person who voted 16/11 to switch to one of the two leading moves to break the tie.

[close]

Spoiler

That is such an impersonal way to refer to me!!

Now you said all that, I am persuaded to follow you - which will make it tied again....

OK, I spent some more time thinking about it - and remembered that my move leaves pips in danger if he enters with 4-2 etc - so there is some risk with most options.  So having considered that, 13-8 does leave a small risk, but plenty to gain if it works!  I will change, and we can move on!

[close]

[diane]

This is still very close, so I will leave it open the full time to allow more discussion or voting.

[socksey]

6-2 is a roll that has killed me soooooooo many times.     I'm sticking with the underdog roll on this one, 16/13 16/14.  He's gonna roll the 6-2.  I just know it!   

socksey



It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. - Lithograph from Despair.com

[spielberg]

Spoiler

I agree with ah_clem that rkb's hit is more valuable after our 13 8 but doubt very much that it's as much as one and a half times the value of a hit after our 16 14 16 13. (I also agree that it's going to be a very close decision when GnuBG / Snowie et al tell us who's right!)

[close]

[diane]

ok, I think we are as decided as we are going to get

[dorbel]

This roll reveals two distinct types of player, the cat and the mouse. The cat sees its prey on the bar and moves a checker to the 8pt, into the killing zone where it can either make a 6 prime or attack the 2pt. The mouse sees the same thing, but wants to tiptoe around in the other room, in case the prey wakes up and rolls 6-2! Come on guys, this is fundamental. BG is a game of aggression,  let's get aggressive.

[vikingblood80]

mouse and cat nice comparison..but thats also what I discovered...some players play to win and some play not to loose..may sound as it is the same..but its not, think about it.

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

This roll reveals two distinct types of player, the cat and the mouse. The cat sees its prey on the bar and moves a checker to the 8pt, into the killing zone where it can either make a 6 prime or attack the 2pt. The mouse sees the same thing, but wants to tiptoe around in the other room, in case the prey wakes up and rolls 6-2! Come on guys, this is fundamental. BG is a game of aggression,  let's get aggressive.

There's the cat, there's the mouse, and then there's the bot.  I'll go with the bot.

The cat move is .02 better than the mouse move, but it's .02 worse than the bot move, which got exactly zero votes.  This isn't the first time nobody went for the best move.

The correct answer is: he's got two men stuck out of play, so spread 'em around with 13/11 13/10.



    1. Rollout          13/11 13/10                  Eq.:  +1.223
       0.806 0.332 0.022 - 0.194 0.035 0.002 CL  +1.170 CF  +1.223
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.010]

    2. Rollout          13/8                         Eq.:  +1.201 ( -0.021)
       0.802 0.328 0.022 - 0.198 0.041 0.003 CL  +1.144 CF  +1.201
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.010]
       
    3. Rollout          16/14 16/13                  Eq.:  +1.178 ( -0.044)
       0.816 0.273 0.014 - 0.184 0.025 0.001 CL  +1.090 CF  +1.178
      [0.001 0.003 0.002 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.009]
       
    4. Rollout          16/11                        Eq.:  +1.163 ( -0.060)
       0.807 0.283 0.023 - 0.193 0.031 0.002 CL  +1.086 CF  +1.163
      [0.001 0.003 0.002 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.009]
       
    5. Rollout          16/14 13/10                  Eq.:  +1.127 ( -0.096)
       0.800 0.291 0.026 - 0.200 0.039 0.005 CL  +1.069 CF  +1.127
      [0.002 0.003 0.003 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.009]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871181490 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

[diane]

rollout

Spoiler

This isn't the first time nobody went for the best move.

[close]

I am sure I was closest though..with 16/11, but no one ever believes in me     

[ah_clem]

I am sure I was closest though..with 16/11, but no one ever believes in me     

If by "closest" you mean "the fourth best move that involves moving completely different checkers than the bot move" then yes, of course, your move was closest.  (c:

And, BTW, I do believe in you, diane.  I don't believe in the tooth fairy or the Easter Bunny, but I certainly believe in you.

[spielberg]

Excellent that none of us got the best move the even more aggressive and cat like surrender of our midpoint

[dorbel]

It's the best move according to a zero ply rollout, by a very small margin. It would be nice to see some reasoning to support this. Looked at with hindsight, it goes like this. 13/8 is a very good play, as that checker is a slot for the 8pt and a builder for the 2pt, doubly valuable. However, it is vulnerable to a 6-2 from the bar (2/36) and that is a great shot for rkb as he can hit and escape a checker.
If we play 13/10, 13/11, that leaves an extra shot, 2-1 and 1-1, but of course these don't simultaneously escape and they do concede rkb's bar point, as well as being vulnerable to extra and more gammonish return shots. All of this is just enough, probably, to outweigh the pure advantages of 13/8. Not sure anybody would find this one over the board!

[diane]

If by "closest" you mean "the fourth best move that involves moving completely different checkers than the bot move" then yes, of course, your move was closest.  (c:

And, BTW, I do believe in you, diane.  I don't believe in the tooth fairy or the Easter Bunny, but I certainly believe in you.

Of course that is what I meant      And I feel so validated now, thankyou