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Game 4, move 24: Herd 2-2

Started by diane, July 19, 2011, 09:14:53 PM

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diane

Position ID: 7/YAAFB2txkBAA
Match ID: UQmpABAAGAAA

Stog danced with 3-2, herd has plenty of options with this roll...let me know if there is one you would like added, with reasons.

Never give up on the things that make you smile

Krazula

Spoiler
I voted 11/5 3/1*. I'm not confident that this is the best move, but I doubt its far off.
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ah_clem

Spoiler

The biggest problem we face is stog anchoring, so I say let's try to prevent that.  Hitting loose is too risky, so I like the point switching play - 5/2(2)*. Who cares if he anchors on the 5? By the time he anchors, we'll be past him.  With the point switching play, his only hope is to roll a joker 55, and even that won't be enough unless he rolls it right away.

Note that if gammons counted, I wouldn't make this play.

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ah_clem

rollout

Spoiler

The Herd's choice comes out on top with gnu 0-ply rollout.  Other moves are not too far behind - it's hard to make a serious blunder in this position.  My point-shifting play is 14th best and a .04 error.




    1. Rollout          11/5 8/6                     Eq.:  +0.942
       0.971 0.377 0.019 - 0.029 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.942 CF  +0.942
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]

    2. Rollout          8/2 8/6                      Eq.:  +0.930 ( -0.012)
       0.965 0.376 0.016 - 0.035 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.930 CF  +0.930
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]

    3. Rollout          11/9 8/4 8/6                 Eq.:  +0.927 ( -0.016)
       0.963 0.354 0.016 - 0.037 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.927 CF  +0.927
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]

    4. Rollout          8/6 3/1*(3)                  Eq.:  +0.923 ( -0.019)
       0.962 0.386 0.013 - 0.038 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.923 CF  +0.923
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]

    5. Rollout          11/5 3/1*                    Eq.:  +0.923 ( -0.019)
       0.963 0.431 0.017 - 0.037 0.001 0.000 CL  +0.923 CF  +0.923
      [0.001 0.007 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.002 CF   0.002]

    6. Rollout          11/9 8/2                     Eq.:  +0.921 ( -0.021)
       0.961 0.329 0.015 - 0.039 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.921 CF  +0.921
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]

    7. Rollout          8/4 8/6 3/1*                 Eq.:  +0.921 ( -0.021)
       0.962 0.428 0.016 - 0.038 0.001 0.000 CL  +0.921 CF  +0.921
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]

    8. Rollout          11/9 8/6(2) 3/1*             Eq.:  +0.919 ( -0.023)
       0.961 0.445 0.018 - 0.039 0.001 0.000 CL  +0.919 CF  +0.919
      [0.001 0.007 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]

    9. Rollout          11/7 8/6 3/1*                Eq.:  +0.918 ( -0.025)
       0.963 0.440 0.018 - 0.037 0.004 0.000 CL  +0.918 CF  +0.918
      [0.001 0.007 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]

   10. Rollout          11/5 4/2                     Eq.:  +0.918 ( -0.025)
       0.959 0.318 0.017 - 0.041 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.918 CF  +0.918
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]

   11. Rollout          11/9 8/6(2) 4/2              Eq.:  +0.915 ( -0.028)
       0.957 0.342 0.019 - 0.043 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.915 CF  +0.915
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.002 CF   0.002]

   12. Rollout          11/9 3/1*(3)                 Eq.:  +0.912 ( -0.031)
       0.956 0.393 0.012 - 0.044 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.912 CF  +0.912
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]

   13. Rollout          11/7 8/6(2)                  Eq.:  +0.907 ( -0.036)
       0.954 0.380 0.017 - 0.046 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.907 CF  +0.907
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.002 CF   0.002]

   14. Rollout          5/1*(2)                      Eq.:  +0.905 ( -0.038)
       0.952 0.319 0.008 - 0.048 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.905 CF  +0.905
      [0.001 0.006 0.001 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 923695915 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

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