Position # 34

[PersianLord]

Position information:

Pip-count: Red 18-84 White
Score:       Red   0-0   White
Match:                 3-pointer

Red to play 1-1




First make your choice and then read on.

Spoiler

Considering the score and cube value, gammons are worthless for red, thus he should play as safe as possible and the safest move here is 4/2*/off. The key point behind this move is getting rid of white's annoying blot on 2-pt which might well hunt a red's checker later on. The reason is simple: after getting hit, there will be a huge 55% chance (20/36) for white to land on red's 5 or 6 points which will guarantee the victory for red.

    1. Cubeful 2-ply    4/2*/off                     Eq.:  +0.949
        97.5%  62.2%   0.2% -   2.5%   0.0%   0.0%
       
    2. Cubeful 2-ply    4/3(3) 1/off                 Eq.:  +0.913 ( -0.037)
        95.6%  53.1%   0.4% -   4.4%   0.0%   0.0%
       
    3. Cubeful 2-ply    1/off(4)                     Eq.:  +0.893 ( -0.057)
        94.6%  69.7%   3.5% -   5.4%   0.0%   0.0%
       
    4. Cubeful 2-ply    4/3 1/off(3)                 Eq.:  +0.771 ( -0.178)
        88.6%  49.9%   1.6% -  11.4%   0.0%   0.0%
       
    5. Cubeful 2-ply    4/2* 1/off(2)                Eq.:  +0.766 ( -0.183)
        88.3%  54.9%   0.3% -  11.7%   0.0%   0.0%
       
As you note, bearing off 4 checkers with 1/off (4) will win much more gammons and even backgammons for red, but as said, they're totally useless.

[close]

[playBunny]

Spoiler

I agree. Bopping a hopeful pesky blot on the head isn't just fun but is also useful in reducing its chances of biting your toe as you leap off the board.

[close]

[PersianLord]

Spoiler

I agree. Bopping a hopeful pesky blot on the head isn't just fun but is also useful in reducing its chances of biting your toe as you leap off the board.

[close]

Spoiler

PB, I've told you in DG forums that talk in a style that I can realize you  , you're toruturing me with your colloquial language 

[close]

[playBunny]

Awww, I thought you said tutoring then I realised it was torturing!

[don]

I think 8 of those 20 rolls (62 63 52 53) don't count for your arg, PL.

--
don

[PersianLord]

I think 8 of those 20 rolls (62 63 52 53) don't count for your arg, PL.

--
don

yes, thnx for clarification. I had forgotten the white's mid-pt