Game 1, move 2 : Herd 2-2

[diane]

Lots of options here, if there is one you want, but dont see, let me know.

[stiefnu]

Spoiler

22 gives us the chance to make an advanced anchor.  With her outfield building up, I think anything else would be a bit of a blunder.  Then it's a choice between slotting our 5-pt, a point we'd like to make, or unstacking our bloated midriff.  Feeling a bit tubby, this is the one I've gone for.  Ok, it does leave a couple of shots but if we're hit, we have a return.  If not, we have plenty of flexibility to build up our board or outfield.  Bar-23, 23-21(2), 13-11.

[close]

[NIHILIST]

Agree

Bob

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Making the advanced anchor is correct here, with 13/11 barely edging 7/5 for the final deuce. 

Making the deuce anchor and the bar point is a double whopper with cheese.



XGID=---Bb-DAB---bDb-ac-d---AaA:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:5:10


    1. Rollout¹    Bar/21 23/21 13/11           eq:-0.014
      Player:   49.63% (G:10.10% B:0.40%)
      Opponent: 50.37% (G:9.75% B:0.34%)
      Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.026..-0.002) - [97.7%]
      Duration: 23 minutes 00 second

    2. Rollout¹    Bar/21 23/21 7/5             eq:-0.031 (-0.017)
      Player:   49.10% (G:10.25% B:0.44%)
      Opponent: 50.90% (G:9.90% B:0.34%)
      Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.042..-0.019) - [2.3%]
      Duration: 18 minutes 37 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    Bar/21 13/11(2)              eq:-0.207 (-0.193)
      Player:   46.14% (G:10.92% B:0.51%)
      Opponent: 53.86% (G:16.98% B:0.69%)
      Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.221..-0.194) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 20 minutes 59 seconds

    4. Rollout¹    Bar/23 13/7                  eq:-0.263 (-0.249)
      Player:   44.66% (G:9.59% B:0.43%)
      Opponent: 55.34% (G:15.58% B:0.50%)
      Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.275..-0.252) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 20 minutes 27 seconds

    5. 3-ply       Bar/23 13/11(2) 7/5          eq:-0.169 (-0.155)
      Player:   45.74% (G:10.42% B:0.38%)
      Opponent: 54.26% (G:13.90% B:0.52%)


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]