Game 6, move 8: Linus 3-2

[diane]

Herd rolled 2-1 and moved 13/10

Linus up now..

[Linus]

6/3, 5/3.

[ah_clem]

ROLLOUT of Herd's 2-1 play.

Spoiler

I thought that breaking the holding game now while his board is weak would be worth considering.  I'm fairly sure that the herd would have voted for 13/10 (I would have, but I had to think about it a bit)

I turns out that 13/10 is best (according to the rollout) but 16/13 is quite close.



XGID=-cBBBBB-----bC--Bc-dc-----:1:1:1:21:4:2:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:2 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X        X  O    |   | O  O             |
| X        X  O    |   | O  O             |
| X           O    |   | O  O             |
|                  |   | O                |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                O | +---+
| O                |   | X  X  X  X  X  O | | 2 |
| O                |   | X  X  X  X  X  O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 111  O: 161 X-O: 4-2/5
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21

   1. Rollout¹    13/10                        eq:+0.503
     Player:   77.57% (G:38.61% B:13.98%)
     Opponent: 22.43% (G:2.44% B:0.33%)
     Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.497..+0.508) - [100.0%]
     Duration: 10 minutes 43 seconds

   2. Rollout¹    16/13                        eq:+0.489 (-0.014)
     Player:   77.04% (G:40.62% B:16.10%)
     Opponent: 22.96% (G:2.62% B:0.13%)
     Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.483..+0.494) - [0.0%]
     Duration: 10 minutes 31 seconds

¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]

[diane]

Yes, I did see the two moves were quite close..but given the previous move - which I am hoping you have rolled out now, I felt really sure we would be waiting a day for a foregone conclusion.