Game 3 Move 3 Zorba to play 6-2

[ah_clem]

62 for Dr Z

[Zorba]

I can't hit, so I would like to safety the blot on my 11pt. I could make my fivepoint, which is great for a later hit. However, I would also like to develop my backmen to avoid getting stuck on the acepoint; after all the race is still close. Splitting the backmen while the Herd wants to safety their runner looks like a good idea: less risk of getting pounded on and the split backmen also guard the Herd's outfield better, in case that runner can't get to complete safety.

The 24/22 split looks like a better bet than the 24/18 split as it gives the Herd less opportunities for a good hit. Also, 24/22 means I can play 11/5 and at least slot the fivepoint. So, 24/22 11/5 for me.

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

I was surprised that Z didn't make the 5 point, so I rolled it out.  His choice is reasonable, but making the 5 point is best.



    1. Rollout          11/5 7/5                     Eq.:  -0.486
       0.372 0.066 0.002 - 0.628 0.105 0.008 CL  -0.294 CF  -0.486
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.010]

    2. Rollout          24/18 11/9                   Eq.:  -0.493 ( -0.006)
       0.375 0.068 0.005 - 0.625 0.145 0.010 CL  -0.324 CF  -0.493
      [0.001 0.001 0.002 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.011]

    3. Rollout          24/22 11/5                   Eq.:  -0.517 ( -0.031)
       0.371 0.066 0.002 - 0.629 0.122 0.008 CL  -0.313 CF  -0.517
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.011]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 903967096 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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