Game 4 Move 17 Forum 32

[roadkillbooks]

foum has to move a 32 now...

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

The obvious move is to hit loose.  With our better board and our anchors hitting is usually the right theme.  However, there's no builder in sight to cover the ensuing blot, so that argues against it.

Let's look at other alternatives.

We're behind in  the race, so we really need to maintain the anchors for awhile.  We especially don't want to abandon the 23 and allow him to play behind the 20. And I think we want to keep the 20 for now.  Eliminating moves that go against this idea  leaves us with:

18/13, bringing another checker around and downgrading it's danger of being hit from a double shot to an ace.  Not bad, but I don't see as it's better than the loose hit.

and

"safe" plays like 18/15 9/7 or 24/22 9/6, but neither are all that safe and given our race deficit, our homeboard advantage and our anchors, safe play isn't indicated.

So, hit loose with 9/4*.  I'm not seeing anything else.

[close]

[diane]

Spoiler

I did toy with the idea of 23/18, but it isnt there, so I was persuaded by the hit...

[close]

[socksey]

Spoiler

I like 23/18 also.  Can we have that choice, too?   

[close]

socksey



"Most people work just hard enough not to get fired and get paid just enough not to quit." - George Carlin

[roadkillbooks]

Spoiler

We are extremely disjointed here.  If we had a 6 instead of a five id abandon the 15 point for the 9 in a flash. But we have to take what the dice give us.  I didnt really even want to make the 15 point becasue it is very transitory. NExt turn or even this turn if it served a purpose wed be breaking it..but there are always dillemas whether to break or not.  I say hit and hope for a 65 next turn and if not break the 15 to bring down more ammo.  The worst that could happen is that wed be stuck in a massive backgame..but in a sense we already are.  I dont like making the 18 point here.  We have tons of defensive points already and we are not in a position to be close to switching to our opponents barpoint.  The best way for us to esatblish connection if by making a point in our outer board.  Of course hitting to make our board trumps that right now because its a point we need and it stops blitzxz tempo at the same time.

[close]

roadkillbooks

[ah_clem]

gnubg 0-0 rollout

Spoiler

Hitting wins the most games and the most gammons, but not by that wide a margin.  None of the top plays abandon the 20 or the 23 points.


    1. Rollout          9/4*                         Eq.:  -0.187
       0.459 0.094 0.011 - 0.541 0.279 0.088 CL  -0.121 CF  -0.187
      [0.003 0.002 0.002 - 0.003 0.004 0.005 CL   0.009 CF   0.010]
       
    2. Rollout          18/15 9/7                    Eq.:  -0.205 ( -0.018)
       0.447 0.093 0.009 - 0.553 0.279 0.075 CL  -0.128 CF  -0.205
      [0.003 0.002 0.001 - 0.003 0.004 0.005 CL   0.008 CF   0.009]
       
    3. Rollout          24/22 18/15                  Eq.:  -0.215 ( -0.028)
       0.449 0.087 0.009 - 0.551 0.285 0.075 CL  -0.137 CF  -0.215
      [0.003 0.002 0.002 - 0.003 0.004 0.005 CL   0.009 CF   0.009]
       
    4. Rollout          18/13                        Eq.:  -0.218 ( -0.030)
       0.451 0.088 0.012 - 0.549 0.284 0.088 CL  -0.141 CF  -0.218
      [0.004 0.002 0.002 - 0.004 0.004 0.005 CL   0.011 CF   0.012]
       
    5. Rollout          24/22 9/6                    Eq.:  -0.252 ( -0.065)
       0.434 0.088 0.013 - 0.566 0.294 0.079 CL  -0.184 CF  -0.252
      [0.003 0.002 0.002 - 0.003 0.004 0.005 CL   0.008 CF   0.010]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 845045210 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]