Game 4, move 26 blitzxz and Forum 27 : Forum 4-3

[diane]

Blitzxz danced again with 5-6, Forum, blue, to move 4-3

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

  We'll still be about 30 pips behind in the  race after moving, so we probably want to maintain our backgame structure. The problem is, by holding on to it we lose communication or give up outfield control.

So, taking the dictum that you should clear your points from the rear, and noting that we'll have to start moving our back men eventually, I choose 23/20 10/6, keeping the outpost on the midpoint instead of making the nine.

No idea if this is best.

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[stog]

Spoiler

23/20 13/9 pour moi -cld be orrible of course if he 44's but if he doesn't! slotting the 6 point or even the 4 point too might be good - what thinks the tribe?

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[diane]

Spoiler

23/20 13/9 pour moi -cld be orrible of course if he 44's but if he doesn't! slotting the 6 point or even the 4 point too might be good - what thinks the tribe?

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Spoiler

I am with you stog...I want to clear from the rear too  - so 23/20 is given, then what to do with the 4..we have the anchor, so 44 doesn't worry me too much...and of the remaining options, 13-9 seemed to remove at least one possible hit, but leave ammo there for filling the gap if we can.

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[stog]

Spoiler

13/6 looks good too!

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[diane]

Spoiler

13/6 looks good too!

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Spoiler

I am less keen on that - for no rational reason, other than it is no better on the 6 than on the 10 [chance to roll 6 is 1/18 and chance to roll 2 is also 1/18]..whereas moving 13/9 means 55 is then a roll which will fill the hole - so we have a higher probability of making the point by moving 13/9 than 10/6.  I am sure dorbel can tell me why I am mistaken 

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I really like keeping the checker on the 13 - it controls the outfield which is very important from a containment perspective - and it keeps our army in communication.   

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[socksey]

Spoiler

I really like keeping the checker on the 13 - it controls the outfield which is very important from a containment perspective - and it keeps our army in communication.   

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Spoiler

In that case, why not 9 5, 10 7? That might give us a better shot at making another block if we don't get hit.  ))

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[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

All of this indecision is a result of us eschewing our bar point with 5-5. He's fanned 3 times and we havent improved our position one whit. I'm adamantly opposed to dismantling our backgame and instead prefer to boldly go after our 7 or 4 point.

I would play 13-6, leaving 3 builders for the 4 point and planning to slot the 4 point next roll, especially if he fans again.

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Bob

[diane]

I have set this to stay open a bit longer to get more discussion, as it seems a bit undecided.  I will progress it when I get home from work.

[dorbel]

Spoiler

I am less keen on that - for no rational reason, other than it is no better on the 6 than on the 10 [chance to roll 6 is 1/18 and chance to roll 2 is also 1/18]..whereas moving 13/9 means 55 is then a roll which will fill the hole - so we have a higher probability of making the point by moving 13/9 than 10/6.  I am sure dorbel can tell me why I am mistaken

I could tell you why you are mistaken if I could understand what you are talking about! What does "chance to roll 6 is 1/18 and chance to roll 2 is also 1/18" mean?  However, earlier we see that diane wants to play 23/20, 13/9. This leaves 6-5 and 5-5 to make the point if White dances again (3/36), sixes and fives to hit loose if White enters and has to stay on the 4pt (28/36) and 3-2, 2-2 and 2-1 to make the bar where appropriate(5/36). It keeps the shots down to 4-4 and 4-6 as well which is nice.
13/6 looks pretty good too, 6-5, 6-2, 5-2 and 2-2 to make the 4pt (7/36), a whopping 32 numbers to hit loose on the 4pt if needed and 3-2 to make the bar in some variations. The downside is the 4 fly shots, not much worse than diane's play.
I wouldn't play either of these though. Our biggest problem remains that we don't have enough checkers in the outfield, partly because we still have four checkers in White's home board and partly because we dumped two checkers on our 2pt. We need more troops and while White is in the air is a fine time to mobilise them. I like 20/13! Why? Because that is what the bots do here. I have been marked with an error so many times when trying to arrange checkers to make key points, when more checkers in the outfield and coverage of every point on the board is the answer. If White now rolls 4-6 we have 8 return shots, if he rolls 4-5 we get 16 return shots. Compare this to the one (1!) return shot we get after 23/20, 13/9, White 4-6 played bar/15. Also compare it to the return shots we get after 13/6, seven or one depending on which fly shot he rolls. Now you can see the value of owning the 13pt, well worth giving up the 20pt to get it IMO.
We are going to have to run risks for several more turns to win this one. WHile White is in the air is the time to do it.

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[diane]

Spoiler

ok, I can see the logic in that - it is the moving from the 23 that is the wrong starting place, If I abandon that as the given, the 20-13 is more obvious a choice, but checker dispersal would still be my aim - as you say, we need more troops in the area - to be able to hit, return hit or make points...whatever.  Our moves now while white is on the bar should be focussing on improving our chances to do any of those 3 things wherever possible.
Gonna have a rethink.

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