Game 4, move 40 Blitzxz and 41 Forum : Forum 4-4

[diane]

Blitzxz danced with 4-2.

Forum, blue, to move 4-4.  Lots of choices here...

H98AAFi27UBAFA:QQmyACAACAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

These are the types of moves where over the board you  don't think it really matters much what you do, only to find out that gnu dings you with a "bad" grade. So while it's tempting to just slide them around willy-nilly, some care is called for.

I don't think purposefully hanging around trying to send a fourth checker back is productive.    But while we don't necessarily want to hang back, there's no pressing urgency to get both out of there.

I like the checker on the 13 where it is - it nicely guards a 1-6 escape. Plus, it could combine with another checker to make the 7 point (probably our foremost strategic objective for a few moves) if only there was another checker in range.  So, let's put one there with 19/11.
This gives us a double shot on any escapee, plus a 1/18 chance to prime next move.

Where to move the other two fours?  We could move both trailers out, but I think we're better off moving one eight pips to get it closer to where the action is (i.e. th 7-point). Which one?  Clear from the back - 23/15.

19/11  23/15 (or 23/11 19/15 if you prefer)

ADDENDUM:  I see that 19/11  23/15 was not an option, so I went ahead and added it.  It's also not terribly different than the current leader 22/14 19/11.  I'll stick with my play, but will gladly switch to 22/14 19/11 if another option starts drawing near.  Unless there's something I'm overlooking, I don't see much difference between the two.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The Forum's choice is 3rd best and a .021 error.  My play, which I thought was almost identical to the Froum"s play comes in 11th and .05 error.  Anybody see why this might be the case?  I'm baffled.  I wouldn't think that they'd be more than a .01 difference.



    1. Rollout          22/18 19/7                   Eq.:  +1.620
       0.954 0.368 0.108 - 0.046 0.004 0.000 CL  +1.629 CF  +1.620
      [0.001 0.003 0.006 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]


    2. Rollout          22/10 19/15                  Eq.:  +1.607 ( -0.013)
       0.950 0.367 0.116 - 0.050 0.003 0.000 CL  +1.619 CF  +1.607
      [0.001 0.003 0.006 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    3. Rollout          22/14 19/11                  Eq.:  +1.598 ( -0.021)
       0.949 0.365 0.114 - 0.051 0.004 0.000 CL  +1.612 CF  +1.598
      [0.001 0.003 0.006 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.005 CF   0.006]

    4. Rollout          22/18 19/11 12/8             Eq.:  +1.591 ( -0.028)
       0.948 0.360 0.100 - 0.052 0.004 0.000 CL  +1.604 CF  +1.591
      [0.001 0.003 0.005 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.005 CF   0.006]

    5. Rollout          23/7                         Eq.:  +1.590 ( -0.030)
       0.952 0.355 0.089 - 0.048 0.005 0.000 CL  +1.600 CF  +1.590
      [0.001 0.003 0.005 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    6. Rollout          22/10 12/8                   Eq.:  +1.588 ( -0.031)
       0.950 0.358 0.105 - 0.050 0.003 0.000 CL  +1.601 CF  +1.588
      [0.001 0.003 0.006 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    7. Rollout          19/11 12/4                   Eq.:  +1.581 ( -0.039)
       0.946 0.359 0.114 - 0.054 0.002 0.000 CL  +1.594 CF  +1.581
      [0.001 0.003 0.006 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    8. Rollout          19/3                         Eq.:  +1.580 ( -0.039)
       0.945 0.360 0.120 - 0.055 0.004 0.000 CL  +1.595 CF  +1.580
      [0.001 0.003 0.006 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    9. Rollout          22/14 12/4                   Eq.:  +1.573 ( -0.046)
       0.947 0.353 0.103 - 0.053 0.002 0.000 CL  +1.586 CF  +1.573
      [0.001 0.003 0.006 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

   10. Rollout          22/6                         Eq.:  +1.571 ( -0.049)
       0.947 0.351 0.111 - 0.053 0.002 0.000 CL  +1.584 CF  +1.571
      [0.001 0.003 0.006 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

   11. Rollout          23/11 19/15                  Eq.:  +1.570 ( -0.050)
       0.949 0.349 0.101 - 0.051 0.003 0.000 CL  +1.582 CF  +1.570
      [0.001 0.003 0.006 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

   12. Rollout          23/19 22/10                  Eq.:  +1.561 ( -0.059)
       0.949 0.344 0.092 - 0.051 0.003 0.000 CL  +1.573 CF  +1.561
      [0.001 0.003 0.005 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

   13. Rollout          23/11 22/18                  Eq.:  +1.556 ( -0.064)
       0.949 0.342 0.099 - 0.051 0.002 0.000 CL  +1.568 CF  +1.556
      [0.001 0.003 0.006 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

   14. Rollout          23/15 22/18 12/8             Eq.:  +1.552 ( -0.068)
       0.948 0.341 0.084 - 0.052 0.002 0.000 CL  +1.563 CF  +1.552
      [0.001 0.003 0.005 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

   15. Rollout          23/11 12/8                   Eq.:  +1.548 ( -0.071)
       0.947 0.341 0.086 - 0.053 0.003 0.000 CL  +1.561 CF  +1.548
      [0.001 0.003 0.005 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848583725 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]