Game 6, move 6 : Forum 1-1

[diane]

Forum, blue, to move 1-1

bJtlAAZwz4MDQA:UYmkADAAGAAA

[dorbel]

Spoiler

Well we only have to find one of these, as bar/24, 8/7(2) are pretty obvious. I can't see what 24/23 does for us. It blocks our great sixes and let's White attack us there. I'm not sure what 13/12 does either, but it does give White four great numbers to escape with a tempo. I like the quiet 6/5, doesn't do much but doesn't get hit either.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

We have to use one 1 to enter, then we make the 7 point with the next two ones.  That muchis obvious. What do we do with the final one?

My instinct is to play 24/23 and step up to the edge of the prime, but I think that this play is wrong here.   For one, it reduces our leaping chances from 13 to 11.  For another, it puts us in range of the checkers on the 17 - he'll hit loose with a six.

13/12 gives more chances to expand our prime (but not much more). It also gives him a chance to pick up an extra checker with a roll of 5-3 (I think he'd hit loose with 6-2).  Playing it safe with 6/5 doesn't come with these small trade-offs.  I'm not sure which is better, so I'm going to go with the riskier play due to our dire position.

Bar/24, 8/7(2), 13/12

Now I'll go read Dorbel's post to see why I'm wrong.  (c:

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[socksey]

Spoiler

I always seem to tie things up, although I don't always say so.     After reading dorbel's analysis, I am tempted to change my vote, but I'll stick to my first thought that coincides with ah_chem and leave the 13/12 as a builder since I figure our chance of making our 7 pt is at least as equal to our opponent's chance of hitting us.  On second thought, we have a couple of combo's to make our 7 pt, whereas, our opponent only has one combo with which to hit us.   

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socksey



"Governor Gray Davis has asked the California State Supreme Court to delay the October recall vote because he says that's not enough time to put on a fair election. Hey, let me tell you something. If we didn't need a fair election to pick the president of the United States, we don't need a fair election to pick the governor of California." - Jay Leno

[dorbel]

Spoiler

we already made the 7pt socksey. White has 4 numbers to hit us if we blot in the outfield, that's 11% with not much reward. Take a risk by all means but where is the gain?

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

The gain is that we get four numbers to extend the blockade. It's a small chance, but so is the risk.  Seems like a wash, except we are in a pickle and need
to do something.

The moves are probably fairly close .

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[dorbel]

Yes, it is of course four extra rolls (3-2, 4-3) as we already have 4-4, 3-3 and 2-2 and will still have those if we play 13/12. The four hitting numbers that this play gives him next do balance our four point making numbers, but I am not sure that the gain balances the risk in terms of what we get. Being hit is very bad for us. Making another blocking point is nice but is it as good for us as his hit is for him? I don't know but I accept that 13/12 is a perfectly reasonable play and I don't mind if we make it. Might well be right, particularly in a gammon free game.

[ah_clem]

Just out of curiosity, what method did we use to break the tie?

rollout:

Spoiler

The quiet play is better by about .03  Surprisingly, entering on the 23 is only about .015 worse that playing 13/12.  That's almost within the margin of error.



    1. Rollout          bar/24 8/7(2) 6/5            Eq.:  -0.458
       0.368 0.100 0.010 - 0.632 0.212 0.012 CL  -0.458 CF  -0.458
      [0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    2. Rollout          bar/24 13/12 8/7(2)          Eq.:  -0.488 ( -0.029)
       0.362 0.105 0.013 - 0.638 0.229 0.016 CL  -0.488 CF  -0.488
      [0.002 0.005 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    3. Rollout          bar/23 8/7(2)                Eq.:  -0.503 ( -0.045)
       0.362 0.108 0.011 - 0.638 0.248 0.011 CL  -0.503 CF  -0.503
      [0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]
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