Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 1 Move 23 Herd to play

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3 3

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

The "obvious" move is 7/3(3) 4/1.  

The "obvious" alternative is 6/3(2) 7/1, but this needlessly creates a gap and buries a couple of checkers on the ace.  I think we can dismiss this one out of hand.

Two other plays come to mind, which I've added to the poll.  The idea is that elmicho's board is crunching so getting hit isn't so bad and if we can force an awkward move on his part we may be able to put a checker or two on the roof and win a gammon.  

7/1(2) means elmicho will be forced to hit with a 5 - a roll of 65 will force him to hit, leave a blot in his homeboard and two other blots around the board while being out- boarded.

7/1 7/4 6/3 gives him two blots to shoot at, but only one is forced and he can hit two with a 54. I doubt this is the right idea.

I think it's important to have these kinds of plays on your radar, but in this scenario I don't think it's the way to go.  The main thing is our gammon price is only .2 at 5a5a with the cube at 4 so taking additional risks to score a gammon is counter-indicated. The other is that burying 4 checkers on the ace while provoking contact is anti-positional.  Maybe one of these early blot plays is correct, but I'll stick with the "obvious" play.  It's definitely the DMP play, and making the DMP play is often right.

7/3(3) 4/1

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[Zorba]

Spoiler

It's good practice to be on the look out for plays like that. In this case though, el_micho's four point board, no matter how bad it looks, means we dance 44% of the time after getting hit. That is just too much risk, since a hit/dance gives el_micho some very real winning chances.

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

No need for a trap play here. As  Z points out, elmicho's four point board make us dance a bunch of the time. In addition, we already have a "trap" in that any 6 forces him off the anchor and gives us a double (or more) shot wthout leaving a shot of our own.  No need to give him a chance to escape with tempo.



    1. Rollout          7/1 7/4(2)                   Eq.:  +0.874
       0.933 0.051 0.002 - 0.067 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.889 CF  +0.874
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736888825 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
    2. Rollout          7/1 6/3(2)                   Eq.:  +0.786 ( -0.088)
       0.896 0.041 0.001 - 0.104 0.002 0.000 CL  +0.811 CF  +0.786
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.002 CF   0.002]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736888825 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
    3. Rollout          7/1(2)                       Eq.:  +0.653 ( -0.222)
       0.835 0.055 0.002 - 0.165 0.004 0.000 CL  +0.695 CF  +0.653
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.002 CF   0.003]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736888825 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
    4. Rollout          7/4(3) 6/3                   Eq.:  +0.626 ( -0.248)
       0.826 0.042 0.002 - 0.174 0.002 0.000 CL  +0.671 CF  +0.626
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.002 CF   0.002]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736888825 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
    5. Rollout          7/4(2) 6/3(2)                Eq.:  +0.601 ( -0.273)
       0.814 0.049 0.002 - 0.186 0.002 0.000 CL  +0.650 CF  +0.601
      [0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.002 CF   0.002]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736888825 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

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