Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 14 Herd to play

[stog]

6 1

[Julia_H]

Spoiler

13/5 last time would have left us in great shape - ah well, that's the game...

We have to hit, as much to protect our back position as anything. 23/16 and other passive running moves leave White on the front foot and ready to attack from those stacks. 10/9 is then out for the same reasons as before (leaving the man on the 10 also duplicates White's return hits with sixes), 23/22 is out because it reduces our chances of grabbing White's bar or hitting something in the outfield. 4/3 is not as bad as the previous options but it just feels wussy. If White comes on with a 4 either way we're not too happy, but if he doesn't then the prospect of closing the four-point is very nice. 10/4* 6/5

[close]

edit stog --added spoiler

[dorbel]

10/4*, 4/1 is illegal. perhaps you mean 10/4*/3. However, the play that would get my vote isn't on your list!

[ah_clem]

10/4*, 4/1 is illegal. perhaps you mean 10/4*/3. However, the play that would get my vote isn't on your list!

I'll change the first option to a legal one.  And if you tell me your preferred move I'll add that too.

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I think we have to hit to maintain the initiative.  Then it looks better to  leave the four point slotted - since we have 3 builders aimed at it and he only has 14 shots that hit it, the odds are in our favor to cover.

For the ace, 6/5 looks a bit better than the other options - 10/9 reduces our covering numbers, 22/21 leaves 6(!) blots all over the board and 23/22 makes 5s play ugly.

10/4* 6/5

[close]

[dorbel]

Spoiler

I would have voted for 10/4* (mandatory) and 22/21, but I expect that you are right and six blots is too much weight for any position! It does however lead to an extremely complex and difficult position (for both sides), so it might be a good choice if you think that you can outplay your opponent from here to the end. I don't really have a definite opinion on what is right, so would go with a partner who liked 6/5 with the one. It doesn't do much but all the others do less I think.

[close]

[elmicho]

I still find Dorbel's suggestion render the herd with a better position than 13/5. You can't expect a blitz to work with 4 checkers buried in my homeland. The key, imo, is to preserve timing - if possible bridge via the 18point.
The hit is mandatory, the 1 is 23/22 or probably better 6/5. 22/21 is too loose -  I think
Volatile and the suspense is on.

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

It's close, but the Herd's choice comes out on top. As noted above, hitting is mandatory.




XGID=---BaBCB--B-d----cAdc-BA--:0:0:1:61:4:0:1:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|             O  X |   | O  O     X  X    |
|             O    |   | O  O     X       |
|             O    |   | O  O             |
|                  |   | O                |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
| O                |   |                  |
| O                |   | X                |
| O     X        X |   | X  X     X       |
| O     X        X |   | X  X  O  X       |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 153  O: 136 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 61

    1. Rollout¹    10/4* 6/5                    eq:-0.079
      Player:   47.47% (G:16.25% B:1.54%)
      Opponent: 52.53% (G:20.57% B:1.12%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.085..-0.073) - [99.1%]
      Duration: 16 minutes 47 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    23/22 10/4*                  eq:-0.089 (-0.010)
      Player:   46.89% (G:14.81% B:1.50%)
      Opponent: 53.11% (G:20.57% B:0.96%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.095..-0.084) - [0.9%]
      Duration: 15 minutes 47 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    10/9 10/4*                   eq:-0.098 (-0.019)
      Player:   46.73% (G:14.89% B:1.36%)
      Opponent: 53.27% (G:23.13% B:1.29%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.104..-0.092) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 15 minutes 21 seconds

    4. Rollout¹    10/4* 4/3                    eq:-0.101 (-0.022)
      Player:   45.97% (G:15.25% B:1.00%)
      Opponent: 54.03% (G:16.20% B:0.71%)
      Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.106..-0.096) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 14 minutes 02 seconds

    5. Rollout¹    22/21 10/4*                  eq:-0.123 (-0.044)
      Player:   46.23% (G:15.04% B:1.78%)
      Opponent: 53.77% (G:24.37% B:2.59%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.129..-0.117) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 14 minutes 34 seconds

    6. Rollout¹    10/4* 5/4                    eq:-0.126 (-0.047)
      Player:   45.15% (G:14.60% B:1.28%)
      Opponent: 54.85% (G:21.79% B:1.07%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.132..-0.120) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 15 minutes 13 seconds


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]