Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 3 cube decision

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cube decision (herd 4 elmicho 1--- match to 5)

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Post-crawford, the cube is automatic.* The cube should have been turned before last roll, but as we opened with a 31 I doubt it was much of an error to hold.  In fact, since the take decision is so easy this may be a practical hold - by waiting until we have a more difficult decision to cube it gives our side a chance to make a mistake.

But even now, the take decision is fairly straightforward - if the opponent is odd-away, take damn near anything unless it looks gammonish.  At even-away, as we are here, take if you are more than 50% to win and pass if you are not.  I'm oversimplifying a bit - at 4a and above you can take a bit below 50% to save your free drop for later.  But not much below 50%

Here, we won the opening with 31, so we started out in great shape. The 61 reply was also pretty good, but we are still the favorite after that play.  Our 43 is a "meh" roll that  shouldn't affect our GWC much one way or the other.  Since we are above 50% GWC, take.



* unless you are trying to use "the trick" (http://www.bkgm.com/faq/Matches.html#what_is_the_trick_), but that doesn't appy at this score.

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[elmicho]

I agree take with ah_clem - trivial take

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Automatic double and trivial take.  It would be a whopper to hold here.

According to XG, the takkepoint is 48.5% at score, taking into account the estimated gammon ratio. 

BTW, I also looked at the cube decision after the opening roll and holding was about a .015 error.


XGID=-b---BD-B-A-dD---bbeA---A-:0:0:-1:00:4:1:0:5:10

X:Player 2   O:Player 1
Score is X:1 O:4 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X     O     O    |   | O  O           X |
| X           O    |   | O  O           X |
| X                |   | O                |
| X                |   | O                |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   | X                |
| O                |   | X                |
| O                |   | X                |
| O           X  X |   | X                |
| O           X  X |   | X  O           O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 160  O: 156 X-O: 1-4/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
  Player Winning Chances:   46.31% (G:12.54% B:0.59%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 53.69% (G:17.25% B:2.11%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances:   46.68% (G:12.73% B:1.13%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 53.32% (G:17.70% B:2.75%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.055, Double=+0.816

Cubeful Equities:
       No double:     +0.721 (-0.095)
       Double/Take:   +0.816
       Double/Pass:   +1.000 (+0.184)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
  Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.712..+0.730)
  Confidence Double:    ± 0.012 (+0.805..+0.828)

  Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
  Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

  Duration: 9 minutes 09 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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