FFM17 Game 3 Move 12 Herd to play 44

[Julia_H]

The Herd have quite a few options with this 44... if you don't see what you like, I'll add more!

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

We'll be up by 18 pips after this play, so I don't see the utility of leaving shots for no good reason, which leads me to play 20/16(3) 9/5.

Making the nine point is laudable, but we don't need to box him in if we stay ahead in the race.

if gammons counted, I'd blitz with 13/1* 13/9.

Not at all sure what's best AtS.

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[KDP]

Spoiler

i would play 20-16(3) escaping our 3 back checkers then for the 4th 4 13-9.  we're up 18 pips and the most basic premise of bg is its a race, so run.  we also build a (broken) 5 prime.   we are hit w/ 1's , 6-4 and dbl 6's but i'll take that chance with his 2 checkers back, behind in the race and his one pt board.

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[ah_clem]

rollout:

Spoiler

Moving our three backmen out is the right idea, then with our opponent's weak board it's worth the risk of leaving a shot to build the blockade.

XGID=-a-aBBB-CA--cB---bbfC-----:1:1:1:44:4:1:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X           O  O |   | O  X             |
| X           O  O |   | O  X             |
|                  |   | O  X             |
|                  |   | O                |
|                  |   | 6                |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
| O           X    |   |                  | +---+
| O           X    |   | X  X  X          | | 2 |
| O        X  X    |   | X  X  X  O     O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 149  O: 151 X-O: 4-1/5
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 44

    1. Rollout¹    20/16(3) 13/9                eq:+0.379
      Player:   73.18% (G:20.52% B:2.35%)
      Opponent: 26.82% (G:4.04% B:0.26%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.373..+0.385) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 4 minutes 52 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    20/16(3) 9/5                 eq:+0.321 (-0.058)
      Player:   71.00% (G:17.49% B:1.88%)
      Opponent: 29.00% (G:4.72% B:0.32%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.315..+0.327) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 4 minutes 22 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    20/16(2) 13/9(2)             eq:+0.313 (-0.066)
      Player:   71.42% (G:25.08% B:3.75%)
      Opponent: 28.58% (G:5.50% B:0.30%)
      Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.306..+0.320) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 4 minutes 39 seconds

    4. Rollout¹    20/16 13/9 13/5              eq:+0.312 (-0.066)
      Player:   70.34% (G:24.25% B:2.29%)
      Opponent: 29.66% (G:4.50% B:0.36%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.306..+0.318) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 4 minutes 11 seconds

    5. Rollout¹    20/16 13/9(2) 8/4            eq:+0.304 (-0.075)
      Player:   69.99% (G:24.57% B:2.30%)
      Opponent: 30.01% (G:4.56% B:0.27%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.298..+0.310) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 3 minutes 48 seconds


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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