Game 2, move 3: Herd 3-2

[diane]

4NvBARgzG/ADIA:cImpAAAAEAAA

[PersianLord]

Spoiler

24/22-13/10. Move the straggler 2 points and bring a man from the 13-pt. 24/21-13/11 looks good as well, but in case of a 2-2 for White, we'll be in a bad position.

[close]

[stiefnu]

Spoiler

24/22-13/10. Move the straggler 2 points and bring a man from the 13-pt. 24/21-13/11 looks good as well, but in case of a 2-2 for White, we'll be in a bad position.

On the other hand, after 24/21-13/11, 5-5 for White wouldn't play so well and our straggler would be in a better position to run out with both 5s as well as 6s.  I don't think there can be much to choose between them?

[close]

[stiefnu]

Spoiler

I should've said, after 24/22-13/10, 5-5 for White wouldn't play so well...

[close]

[PersianLord]

Spoiler

On the other hand, after 24/21-13/11, 5-5 for White wouldn't play so well and our straggler would be in a better position to run out with both 5s as well as 6s.  I don't think there can be much to choose between them?

[close]

Spoiler

Why? He would make an anchor at our bar pt with 2 of his 5s, whether he's able to make a point on our head or not. The point is that with 2-2, he can both make an anchor at our 4-pt AND make a valuable point at his own board, but with 5-5, he will have to make a point deep in his board.

Regards

[close]

[stiefnu]

Spoiler

The point is that with 2-2, he can both make an anchor at our 4-pt AND make a valuable point at his own board, but with 5-5, he will have to make a point deep in his board.

True.  But how about the extra escaping chances we get with 5s as well as 6s?  Anyway, looking forward to the rollout.

[close]

[diane]

This seems pretty clear cut..so i think we can move along- and roll it out 

[ah_clem]

Don't muck with the four point board.   
Don't give him a direct shot in our outfield. 
Get the runner moving. 

That leaves two possibilities: 24/21, 13/11 and 24/22, 13/10.  The former gives more escaping numbers without having any discernable downsides.  Seems pretty easy, unless I'm missing something.

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

I guess I'm missing something.  The alternative play 24/22 13/10   comes out a bit better.  I have no idea why.  Anyone care to hazard a post-hoc reason?



    1. Rollout          24/22 13/10                  Eq.:  +0.299
       0.577 0.156 0.012 - 0.423 0.099 0.003 CL  +0.181 CF  +0.299
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.013]

    2. Rollout          24/21 13/11                  Eq.:  +0.274 ( -0.024)
       0.574 0.157 0.014 - 0.426 0.101 0.004 CL  +0.170 CF  +0.274
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.012]

    3. Rollout          13/11 13/10                  Eq.:  +0.255 ( -0.044)
       0.563 0.178 0.011 - 0.437 0.100 0.004 CL  +0.179 CF  +0.255
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.012]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 893898012 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]