Game 2 Move 9 Fouum to play 5-2

[ah_clem]

Hoopefull, that's enough choices, but if you don't see one you'd like, let me know.

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

We'd like to get our runner out of there.  With the pipcount even, there's no reason to hang back, other than the risk of getting hit.  Unfortunately, moving up to the 18 is not risky so much as certain.  We'll get whacked if we do.

The next objective would be to make points in our homeboard.  But the only point we can make right now is the 3 and we have to give up our slot on thet 5 to do so.  If I thought we were likely to get a shot next roll I might do that, but we should think long term about our board and making the 3 will make it harder to make the 5 later.

So, what's the best move to position ourselves to make homeboard points?  8/3 6/4 slots a second point, unstacks the 6 and probably provides the greatest chance to make homeboard points.  However, by leaving two blots in our homeboard we're sending a gilt-edged invitation to Schig to hit loose.  

So that leaves 13/8 6/4.  We don't need a fourth checker on the 8, but it doesn't hurt.  Moving single checker from the 6 to the 4 doesn't hurt our position either.  So that's my choice, the best of  a mediocre lot.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I see that 8/3 5/3 got two votes right away.  Could this be the move?

The reason I rejected it is that I didn't think we'd get a shot next move, but looking again, it's obvious that Schig will hit loose if we have a blot on the 5.  We have much better counterplay with a three-point blotless board, possibly even enough to dissuade him from hitting.

So 8/3 5/3 it is.  This might even be a next now that I've thought about it some more.

(I'm reminded of the story of the math professor who claimed in a lecture "It is obvious that _Proposition_X_ is true", to which a student asked "Are you sure it's obvious?"  The professor then walked out of the classroom and paced up and down the hallway thinking about the problem and returned 20 minutes later to proudly announce: "Yes. I'm now sure it's obvious.")

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[ah_clem]

Stog, can you flip the "allow users to change votes" flag?  It appears I'm locked out of that function.

[stog]

ok done
remember to also check 'show votes after a member has voted' as well as 'allow edit vote checkbox' when you set up the poll

also as a moderator you should be able to edit your own polls? (edit poll tag)

i see as well it was 'locked' which prevented the 'remove vote' from showing

[tester]

ive done some testing in the mod board clem take a look

the remove vote box doesnt appear when moderator's edit the poll - but they do for that bugger stog so until he finds a fix u'll have to ask him to edit it , if u forget at the outset of polling

now i wonder if global mods can edit it ?

wanders off to change into a global  mod.....

cheers!

[tester]

was tempted to vote again then

[stog]

ok fixed -- moderators will now see 'remove vote' option when they click edit

that only took an hour or so
grrrrr

[ah_clem]

I think it's safe to present a rollout here. 

Spoiler

    1. Rollout          8/3 5/3                      Eq.:  +0.059
       0.470 0.101 0.008 - 0.530 0.122 0.001 CL  -0.126 CF  +0.059
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.007]

    2. Rollout          13/8 6/4                     Eq.:  +0.014 ( -0.045)
       0.459 0.099 0.005 - 0.541 0.127 0.002 CL  -0.158 CF  +0.014
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 CL   0.005 CF   0.007]

    3. Rollout          13/6                         Eq.:  -0.016 ( -0.075)
       0.447 0.093 0.009 - 0.553 0.130 0.002 CL  -0.186 CF  -0.016
      [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.007]
   
    4. Rollout          13/8 5/3                     Eq.:  -0.035 ( -0.094)
       0.446 0.092 0.008 - 0.554 0.134 0.002 CL  -0.200 CF  -0.035
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.007]

    5. Rollout          6/4 6/1                      Eq.:  -0.041 ( -0.100)
       0.450 0.111 0.005 - 0.550 0.161 0.002 CL  -0.207 CF  -0.041
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.007]

    6. Rollout          8/3 6/4                      Eq.:  -0.043 ( -0.102)
       0.447 0.111 0.011 - 0.553 0.156 0.002 CL  -0.201 CF  -0.043
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.008]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 839606870 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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