FIBS Board backgammon forum
Backgammon => Fibsboard Forum Matches => FFM 5 => Topic started by: Zorba on June 22, 2010, 10:56:07 AM
The Herd played 5-4 entering from the bar and bringing another builder down B/21 13/8.
Now dorbel doesn't double and has a 5-2 to play.
XGID=----aBB-D-B-eC-a-b-ccAA---:0:0:-1:52:0:0:0:5:10
GNUBg Id: cGfiAwSwecYBCg:MAG1AAAAAAAA
I did consider doubling this, race lead, threats, one man back aginst two, but a bad sequence here can see me back as an underdog in a roll and the side owning the cube at 5-away, 5-away has a strong recube much earlier than usual. I also thought that while I could lose my market here, I wouldn't lose it by much.
So, 5-2 to play. It looks pretty clear to play 8/3*, 5/3. If I could play safe I would, but I can't so put him on the roof, make a point and say pah to three blots! Dance and I double.
XG cube rollout:
Spoiler
It would be a huge blunder to double this, unless there's any chance of a pass of course.
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 58,73% (G: 17,14% B: 0,90%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41,27% (G: 9,35% B: 0,59%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 58,25% (G: 18,60% B: 1,10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41,75% (G: 10,01% B: 0,97%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0,249, Double=+0,533
Cubeful Equities:
No Double: +0,403
Double/Take: +0,213 (-0,190)
Double/Drop: +1,000 (+0,597)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout
3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red
Confidence No Double: ± 0,015 (+0,389<E<+0,418)
Confidence Double: ± 0,019 (+0,194<E<+0,233)
Double Decision confidence: 100,0%
Take Decision confidence: 100,0%
Duration: 27 minutes 08 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
XG roller+ on move:
Spoiler
Not the best 3 plays, but what might be the three most interesting to compare. Pointing is very clear.
1. XG Roller+ 8/3* 5/3 eq:+0,286
Player : 54,61% (G:19,24% B:0,66%)
Opponent: 45,39% (G:10,53% B:0,45%)
2. XG Roller+ 21/16 10/8 eq:+0,172 (-0,114)
Player : 55,08% (G:11,09% B:0,44%)
Opponent: 44,92% (G:9,11% B:0,29%)
3. XG Roller+ 13/8 10/8 eq:+0,059 (-0,228)
Player : 52,09% (G:11,51% B:0,48%)
Opponent: 47,91% (G:10,85% B:0,32%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross