Game 1, move 9, dorbel 5-3

[Zorba]

The Herd took the 2-cube. dorbel rolled his 6-2 joker to point 10/4* 6/4, The Herd danced with a 6-6. Ouch.

Now it's dorbel with a 5-3 to play.

XGID=----aBC-C-B-eC---a-bbbb-AA:1:1:-1:53:0:0:0:5:10
GNUBg Id: bJvgAwSwc8YBUA:EYG1AAAAAAAA

[ah_clem]

I understand that I screwed the pooch on the cube decision,  but you have to admit I was right about the one-way ticket to Gammon City.  That train is now leaving the station on track nine, and we've got a seat in First Class. 

[dorbel]

I wouldn't feel too bad about taking. The take was very easy and the pass is a huge blunder. In fact doubling is a technical blunder, but according to snowie is correct if there is an 18% chance of a wrong pass. With a 42.5% vote for a pass it was clearly right to ship it in. Think of it as a chouette. In the box I would be +5 on the score sheet and playing on for 2 against the other seven. However, I admit that I doubled because I thought that it was correct!
A difficult 5-3 to play. Obviously making the 8pt is very attractive, but I am going to eschew that and complete my escape, 21/13. I have to escape to win and chances to do so in almost complete safety have to be taken. The back checker behind the team's broken four prime is the reason it wasn't correct to double in the first place. The resulting position (stack on the midpoint, blot in the outfield) is far from ideal, but with the team in the air it should develop ok in the next turn or two. 21/13

[sixty_something]

don't forget our side cube, dorbel, back when Zorba first gave us a cube decision, i was alone in voting to offer it to you .. since it was clearly a little over aggressive on my part and not a good cube, i assume you took it back then

making up rules as i go along, when you offered the cube earlier and The Herd accepted, i assume you also threw the 2 cube you owned from me .. thus, as master of my own imagination,  i am now also owing a 4 cube in our side bet

does this sort of side betting actually happen in a chouette? if so, that could get wild

[diane]

i am now also owing a 4 cube in our side bet

does this sort of side betting actually happen in a chouette? if so, that could get wild

That isn't a 'side bet', that is exactly how a chouette works.  And yes, it can get wild.

[sixty_something]

That isn't a 'side bet', that is exactly how a chouette works.  And yes, it can get wild.

.. thx for clarifying that, diane // so, in our recent split decison on accepting, could those who chose to pass do so independently and now be out of the game losing one point rather than risking 2?

on a move, could someone decide to make a move dirrerent than the choice by the group (what do you call The Herd in a chouette?) .. if so, is there a second board used to track that variation?

i can see why chouettes might get tricky to run on-line .. but they look like they'd be fun .. obviously i have never played in one .. i had a chance once many years ago in the late 1970's, but at $100 a point (back when a hundred was still a hundred) i chose to pass

[Zorba]

Let's stick to the game at hand, it's interesting enough when 5 out of 12 players pass a 0.41 take!

After dorbel's 6-2 joker, pointing 10/4* 6/4 on us, if he could offer a cube then, it would actually be a borderline drop. So one of dorbel's very best rolls is only a bare market loser.

Of course, given our 6-6 dance following it, it's a huge drop, so point/dance are big market losing 2-move sequences. Then again, point/enter is not at all a market loser.

[diane]

so, in our recent split decison on accepting, could those who chose to pass do so independently and now be out of the game losing one point rather than risking 2?

Yes, I would be out for my single point and off at the bar having a drink, watching you lot sweat this one out from afar 

If you had cubed when you wanted, and the box had taken, you would be on a 4 cube, the rest on 2, and I would be far far away 

But a chouette isnt played over matches [ie to 5 or whatever], it is money play, each game stands alone.

[Zorba]

XG Rollout of dorbel's interesting 5-3 play:

Spoiler

    1. Rollout¹    21/13                        eq:+0,765
      Player  : 76,66% (G:28,13% B:1,00%)
      Opponent: 23,34% (G:3,63% B:0,26%)
      Confidence: ± 0,006 (+0,759<E<+0,771)
      Duration: 11 minutes 07 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    13/10 13/8                   eq:+0,747 (-0,018)
      Player  : 72,96% (G:34,85% B:1,97%)
      Opponent: 27,04% (G:5,18% B:0,48%)
      Confidence: ± 0,007 (+0,740<E<+0,754)
      Duration: 12 minutes 14 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    21/18 13/8                   eq:+0,741 (-0,024)
      Player  : 74,20% (G:31,68% B:1,65%)
      Opponent: 25,80% (G:4,81% B:0,46%)
      Confidence: ± 0,006 (+0,735<E<+0,747)
      Duration: 10 minutes 04 seconds

    4. Rollout¹    21/16 13/10                  eq:+0,728 (-0,037)
      Player  : 74,21% (G:31,05% B:1,37%)
      Opponent: 25,79% (G:5,03% B:0,51%)
      Confidence: ± 0,006 (+0,722<E<+0,734)
      Duration: 12 minutes 04 seconds

    5. Rollout¹    21/16 8/5                    eq:+0,706 (-0,059)
      Player  : 73,06% (G:31,69% B:1,44%)
      Opponent: 26,94% (G:5,16% B:0,48%)
      Confidence: ± 0,006 (+0,700<E<+0,712)
      Duration: 11 minutes 23 seconds

    6. Rollout¹    13/5                         eq:+0,669 (-0,096)
      Player  : 70,01% (G:35,75% B:1,76%)
      Opponent: 29,99% (G:6,26% B:0,59%)
      Confidence: ± 0,007 (+0,662<E<+0,676)
      Duration: 12 minutes 29 seconds

¹ 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Interesting decision here, often you want to go all out when blitzing, bring the builders down, point, or at least hit loose if you can, etc. But sometimes, the blitz runs out of steam, and it might be better to focus on getting the backman/-men out, as this could greatly improve your winning chances once opponent anchors.
This position seems to be a case in point. Although dorbel had a great start to the blitz, with the best four points made, he now has to bring checkers all the way from the midpoint to (hopefully) make the two- and onepoints. Meanwhile, that backchecker is blocked on four numbers and it could get worse quickly, once the Herd starts playing again.

So, good decision by dorbel to concentrate on winning the game here by running to safety 21/13, instead of going all out for the close out (13/5 is most flexible and gammonish), or an inbetween 13/8 13/10 move, bringing down two builders but one out of direct range, but making the solid eightpoint for some security.

Look at how the various plays tally up their wins and gammons in different amounts, it tells a lot about how blitz games work.

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