Game 1, move 13, Herd to play 5-1

[Zorba]

dorbel played his 5-3 making the eightpoint and moving an attacker to the 5pt 11/8 10/5, the Herd danced once more with a 5-4, dorbel rolls a nice 6-3 to close the two point 8/2 5/2, now the Herd finally enters! Yay. Just a 5 on the other die we need to ponder about.

XGID=-----BC-C-B-dC---a-bbbbbAA:1:1:1:51:0:0:0:5:10
GNUBg Id: tm2CBwCwc8YBUA:UYm0AAAAAAAA

[diane]

I am not here voting, just peering over from the bar, to see if you have a hope with this one 

[ah_clem]

We've got an ace point game, which appears to be well timed.  That usually gives about a 25% winning chance (and is a take for money or  early match scores).

Spoiler

Our objective should be to make our home board points in order. 8/3 and 6/1 are out of order. 13/3 makes a stack and doesn't diversify our position.  10/5 is what's left, so that must be the move.

[close]

[RickrInSF]

Spoiler

i voted as ah_clem did, for the exact same reason - the 4 spot should be our next target - 10-5

[close]

[Zorba]

XG rollout:

Spoiler

It's very close, 1 and 2 are too close to call. 10/5 is a little behind, I'd say that's because it doesn't start a new point, whereas it does break up a useful point: the tenpoint is good to have as long as the fourpoint isn't made. Byut anyway, you can't really go wrong here, except with 6/1.

    1. Rollout¹    Bar/24 13/8                  eq:-0,779
      Player  : 20,01% (G:1,34% B:0,09%)
      Opponent: 79,99% (G:21,39% B:1,44%)
      Confidence: ± 0,004 (-0,783<E<-0,775)
      Duration: 9 minutes 41 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    Bar/24 8/3                   eq:-0,779 (-0,001)
      Player  : 19,91% (G:1,34% B:0,09%)
      Opponent: 80,09% (G:21,07% B:1,51%)
      Confidence: ± 0,004 (-0,783<E<-0,775)
      Duration: 9 minutes 25 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    Bar/24 10/5                  eq:-0,788 (-0,010)
      Player  : 19,68% (G:1,36% B:0,09%)
      Opponent: 80,32% (G:21,37% B:1,47%)
      Confidence: ± 0,004 (-0,792<E<-0,784)
      Duration: 5 minutes 56 seconds


¹ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red


eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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