Game 1, move 23, The Herd to play 6-6

[Zorba]

dorbel played the 6-1 23/22*/16
Herd DANCE with 3-2
dorbel 6-5 forced move 16/5
Herd 6-4 enters one checker with B/19
dorbel 3-3 the obvious safe play 4/1(2) 3/off(2)

Now the Herd rolls a 6-6 to try and run off the gammon... I used a somewhat non-standard move notation in the poll here, I hope it's clearer this way how the four sixes are played in the various options.

Perhaps not the most interesting play, but it's still valuable to see if you can find the best approach towards saving the gammon here.



XGID=----BBB-A-B--C-----Bc--cgA:1:1:1:66:0:0:0:5:10
GNUBg Id: f8cBAAC2yTgwEA:UQm7AAAAAAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

One usually thinks in terms of transitions, but not all transitions are equal.  Transitions that move a point into our homeboard are better, all other things being equal.  I like putting a checker on the 7 so that a one can be played into the homeboard.  I don't think a second checker is that helpful.  So, B/19 19/13(2) 13/7 for me.

I thought about moving the checkers on the 10, but the first priority is to get checkers home - I don't want to "waste" four pips playing off the ten.

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[diane]

This must be 'interesting', given that we have 4 votes for four different moves 

Spoiler

I am not sure that I follow the reasoning that the 13-7 is a better transition than 19-13...any 1's will be played into the home outer board, so still useful.

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[Zorba]

XG rollout:

Spoiler

Very small differences here, since we get gammoned anyway over 90% of the time. Plays with 10/4 or 8/2 are wrong since they waste some pips in the cross-over race. So it's about how many checkers are played 19/13 and how many 13/7, after entering B/19. The Herd decided to move all three sixes to the midpoint; the bot prefers to use one six for 13/7. I think it has to do with flexibility, piling 6 checkers on the midpoint gives us a bit less options to spread checkers around in the future, especially with high rolls. But it's all extremely close anyway.

    1. Rollout¹    Bar/7 19/13                  eq:-2,204
      Player  : 0,00% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
      Opponent: 100,00% (G:91,51% B:0,00%)
      Confidence: ± 0,001 (-2,205<E<-2,203)
      Duration: 40,5 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    Bar/7 13/7                   eq:-2,207 (-0,003)
      Player  : 0,00% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
      Opponent: 100,00% (G:91,75% B:0,00%)
      Confidence: ± 0,001 (-2,208<E<-2,206)
      Duration: 43,7 seconds

*   3. Rollout¹    Bar/13 19/13(2)              eq:-2,207 (-0,003)
      Player  : 0,00% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
      Opponent: 100,00% (G:91,77% B:0,00%)
      Confidence: ± 0,001 (-2,208<E<-2,206)
      Duration: 28,4 seconds

    4. Rollout¹    Bar/19 13/7(3)               eq:-2,208 (-0,004)
      Player  : 0,00% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
      Opponent: 100,00% (G:91,82% B:0,00%)
      Confidence: ± 0,001 (-2,209<E<-2,207)
      Duration: 41,1 seconds

    5. Rollout²    Bar/7 10/4                   eq:-2,216 (-0,011)
      Player  : 0,00% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
      Opponent: 100,00% (G:92,43% B:0,00%)
      Confidence: ± 0,002 (-2,218<E<-2,214)
      Duration: 11,3 seconds

    6. Rollout²    Bar/7 8/2                    eq:-2,225 (-0,021)
      Player  : 0,00% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
      Opponent: 100,00% (G:93,10% B:0,00%)
      Confidence: ± 0,002 (-2,227<E<-2,223)
      Duration: 13,4 seconds

    7. Rollout²    Bar/13 10/4(2)               eq:-2,228 (-0,024)
      Player  : 0,00% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
      Opponent: 100,00% (G:93,35% B:0,00%)
      Confidence: ± 0,002 (-2,230<E<-2,226)
      Duration: 8,6 seconds

    8. Rollout²    Bar/19 13/7 10/4(2)          eq:-2,228 (-0,024)
      Player  : 0,00% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
      Opponent: 100,00% (G:93,35% B:0,00%)
      Confidence: ± 0,002 (-2,230<E<-2,226)
      Duration: 11,6 seconds


¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red


eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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