Game 5, move 10 : Forum 3-2

[diane]

rkb is not having a good time here - he dances again, with 5-4 zLaDAWBj24IxAA:cAmgACAAGAAA

We go again, blue to move 3-2 - lots of choices here, not sure if any really stand out!! [and if you want one that isn't there - do let me know!!]

zLaDAWBj24IxAA:cImpACAAGAAA

[stog]

Spoiler

we can now make the 5 point prime and the blot is safe as 11 is now no longer an rkb joker 13/8

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[vikingblood80]

Spoiler

spread the builders/attackers...hey whats wrong my move 8/6 7/4 is not available!  

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

We want to get builders in range to bear on the two open points in our board.  Unfortunately, we can't bring in another builder this move - 13/5 doesn't make another builder and 13/10 is too far away.  So what to do?

13/9 13/11 positions us to bring in more builders next move and if rkb hasn't anchored yet hopefully make a fifth point.  Is this  better than 13/5?  Maybe, but we slottted the 8 and it's thematic to make that point.  So, I say proceed as planned and make the point.  The "spread 'em around" play may be better, but I doubt by very much if it is.  None of the other plays have any appeal at all.


13/5 

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

spread the builders/attackers...hey whats wrong my move 8/6 7/4 is not available!  

This move is worth considering, and certainly should be a voting option.

Is it best?  It allows 9 rolls that make a fifth point as opposed to 6 rolls after making the 8.  Is the additional chance of closing another point worth giving up a sweet looking 5 point prime?  I'm not sure, but I voted for the mouse move, remember?

The key here is the value of the 5 prime - does it really do us any good?  If rkb anchors we're going to cash, so it doesn't have as much value as it normally would.  Blitz/closeout is the theme now and vikingblood's choice is more thematic than making the eight.

I'm not ready to switch my vote yet, but could be persuaded.  Note that there is no risk of rkb hitting the blot if we make this move.

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[blitzxz]

Spoiler

Gammons have huge value here so we have to maximaze covering rolls. So 13/10 7/5. That brings more attackers for next moves also and doesn't give super jokers. Building a prime with 13/8? is complitely counterthematic here. Why would you build a prime when the other player is on the bar with 2 checkers? We have to try to closeout for gammon now that rkb is crippled and on the bar. There is not even risk here.

[close]

[dorbel]

13/10, 7/5 creates 15 numbers to make a fifth point and equally importantly, increases our chances of whacking any blot that shows its head. Its major drawback is that it leaves four blots to tidy up if rkb rolls well.  It may be right, but I prefer 13/8, still 12 numbers to make a fifth point and a solid position if things go wrong.

[diane]

Spoiler

spread the builders/attackers...hey whats wrong my move 8/6 7/4 is not available!  

[close]

I did mention you could ask for any others - your wish is my command 

There were just so many permutations for this one - which I expect will be reflected in a split vote...but we shall see 

[blitzxz]

It may be right, but I prefer 13/8, still 12 numbers to make a fifth point and a solid position if things go wrong.

It's generally my playing style to not care about if thing go wrong...   My playing style is extremely volatile and this is of course not always correct. However it also often leads positions where I have a lot of forced moves (things got rotten) or either in positions which I play well (or at least better then other positios). So suits to me.

My reasoning here goes like this: If rkb rolls let's say 22 or 33. Things have gone very badly even if me made the 5-prime. (Huge equity swing.) If this happens and we didn't make fifth point sure things are even worse but if we also take into account that there is minimal 6 % chance for those jokers then the overall difference in equity is actually quite small. To my experience people tend to give too much value for rare (anti)jokers because those sequences are easy to calculate in head. In majority of outcomes (these are impossible for me to calculate in head, there is so many) our extra builders will give a lot more gammons and this will outweight those rare if things go badly scenarios. When trying to close-out spreading blots wildly is my general tactics and I have often checked this with gnu and it agrees. Only if gammons won't value much or there are some superjokers for small distribution gains (here there is no hits even) this would be wrong. And now it would be very funny if I'm wrong here.  

[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

I thought we shifted our prime to go for the gammon and win. Making the 8 point again is solid but it just doesn't seem consistent with our strategy.

I like 16 - 13, 7 - 5. It gives us more attacking flexibility if he enters 1 checker but comes with the nasty downside of paying off to his 2-2.

I'm probably too much a purist. I KNOW shifting the point with our 1 - 1 was best, but was uncomfortable with maybe having to attack him with a lesser prime to protect us. But, now that we've done it, it seems best to bring the most wood to bear on those two open points.

[close]

Bob

[adrian]

I agree with Bob, for 5th time now. Just for the record. 

[lewscannon]

Spoiler

I like the 16-13 7-5 move and go for the gammon to end the match. When you have a chance to drive the stake through the vampire's heart, you take it.

[close]

[vikingblood80]

Spoiler

our game plan is attacking/ closing the board not priming with 13/8..anyway also this move seems too passive for me while 2 men are on the bar

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[ah_clem]

bot results

Spoiler

Note: Corrrected. I screwed up.  the first results were for a 0-0 match score.  Correct results below.

A close one.  Not only do the evaluation and the rollout disagree, but the results are close enough as to be a statistical tie.  13/10 7/5   and 13/8 are about the same.  The other options receiving votes are not too far behind.  Hard for us to go too far wrong here...


    1. Cubeful 2-ply    13/10 7/5                    Eq.:  +1.486
       0.809 0.561 0.010 - 0.191 0.038 0.001
    2. Cubeful 2-ply    13/8                         Eq.:  +1.476 ( -0.009)
       0.813 0.533 0.009 - 0.187 0.031 0.001
    3. Cubeful 2-ply    13/11 13/10                  Eq.:  +1.457 ( -0.029)
       0.808 0.535 0.009 - 0.192 0.033 0.001
    4. Cubeful 2-ply    13/11 7/4                    Eq.:  +1.454 ( -0.032)
       0.804 0.551 0.010 - 0.196 0.039 0.001
    5. Cubeful 2-ply    13/10 8/6                    Eq.:  +1.426 ( -0.060)
       0.805 0.519 0.009 - 0.195 0.033 0.001
    6. Cubeful 2-ply    13/11 8/5                    Eq.:  +1.418 ( -0.068)
       0.803 0.518 0.009 - 0.197 0.035 0.001
    7. Cubeful 2-ply    16/13 7/5                    Eq.:  +1.417 ( -0.069)
       0.800 0.532 0.010 - 0.200 0.038 0.001
    8. Cubeful 2-ply    8/6 7/4                      Eq.:  +1.416 ( -0.070)
       0.798 0.544 0.010 - 0.202 0.039 0.001
    9. Cubeful 2-ply    16/14 16/13                  Eq.:  +1.411 ( -0.075)
       0.811 0.480 0.009 - 0.189 0.026 0.001
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

    1. Rollout          13/8                         Eq.:  +1.536
       0.788 0.581 0.023 - 0.212 0.046 0.004 CL  +1.568 CF  +1.536
      [0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.012]
       
    2. Rollout          13/10 7/5                    Eq.:  +1.527 ( -0.009)
       0.783 0.587 0.023 - 0.217 0.047 0.007 CL  +1.580 CF  +1.527
      [0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.002 CL   0.008 CF   0.011]

    3. Rollout          13/11 7/4                    Eq.:  +1.511 ( -0.025)
       0.780 0.572 0.027 - 0.220 0.045 0.005 CL  +1.556 CF  +1.511
      [0.002 0.004 0.003 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.008 CF   0.011]

    4. Rollout          13/11 13/10                  Eq.:  +1.493 ( -0.044)
       0.781 0.576 0.023 - 0.219 0.049 0.006 CL  +1.536 CF  +1.493
      [0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.011]

    5. Rollout          8/6 7/4                      Eq.:  +1.480 ( -0.056)
       0.776 0.568 0.022 - 0.224 0.046 0.005 CL  +1.525 CF  +1.480
      [0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.008 CF   0.011]

    6. Rollout          16/13 7/5                    Eq.:  +1.480 ( -0.057)
       0.774 0.574 0.025 - 0.226 0.051 0.006 CL  +1.525 CF  +1.480
      [0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.010]

    7. Rollout          16/14 16/13                  Eq.:  +1.461 ( -0.075)
       0.778 0.546 0.022 - 0.222 0.043 0.006 CL  +1.483 CF  +1.461
      [0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.011]

    8. Rollout          13/11 8/5                    Eq.:  +1.443 ( -0.093)
       0.774 0.542 0.020 - 0.226 0.047 0.005 CL  +1.476 CF  +1.443
      [0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.008 CF   0.011]

    9. Rollout          13/10 8/6                    Eq.:  +1.420 ( -0.116)
       0.772 0.548 0.023 - 0.228 0.046 0.005 CL  +1.469 CF  +1.420
      [0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.011]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 870767566 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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