Game 6, move 16 : Forum 6-2

[diane]

Forum, blue, to move 6-2

7t4AAIDttgEABg:8AmrACAAIAAA

As usual, a range of options are offered - ask if there is another one you want.

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

We want to hold the ace point until the bitter end. So, slot the point adjacent to the prime  with 8/2.  Where we play the 2 probably doesn't matter much.   I'm going for 8/6, but 5/3 is probable about as good.

8/2 8/6

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Thinking about this further....

Our best chance to win is to hold the ace point as long as possible. By leaving a checker on the 8 we get one more 6 to play before we have to run a backman.  I think this outweighs the chances of a fly shot from the bar on the 8.

So, I'm changing my vote to 8/2 5/3.  I still don't expect that there's a big difference....

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Statistical tie.  No need to waste many brain cell over this one.  Even a "weird" move like 8/2 4/2 is within the margin of error. 



    1. Rollout          8/6 8/2                      Eq.:  -0.827
       0.109 0.000 0.000 - 0.891 0.457 0.009 CL  -0.827 CF  -0.827
      [0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.003 0.001 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]
   
    2. Rollout          8/2 5/3                      Eq.:  -0.831 ( -0.003)
       0.109 0.000 0.000 - 0.891 0.486 0.009 CL  -0.831 CF  -0.831
      [0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

    3. Rollout          8/2 4/2                      Eq.:  -0.837 ( -0.009)
       0.106 0.000 0.000 - 0.894 0.479 0.009 CL  -0.837 CF  -0.837
      [0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.003 0.001 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 869404559 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]