Fibsboard Forum Match 18 Game 3 Move 12 Herd to cube?

[stiefnu]

Well, Herdsters, at this point it occurs to me we should pause a while, to ponder whether or not to ship the cube over. Although we're well ahead in the race, juanz has a useful anchor and gammons don't grow on trees...

5-pt match, juanz 0-3 Herd
Pipcount: juanz (red) 160, Herd (black) 126

Steve

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

juanz's takepoint AtS is somewhere in the low to mid 20s, but if he takes we're looking at an auto recube, and a win gets him to crawford.  Meanwhile, cubing kills our gammons.

I'd be happy to cash this, but I don't think it's a cash.  I also don't think it's all that volatile, so holding shouldn't cost us much if it's an error at all.

I hold here - a single point win gets us to Crawford, a gammon wins the match.  Playing for four points is not in our interest.

Roll.

[close]

[KDP]

Spoiler

these scores are always tricky, if he has pretty much any chance at all, which i think he does,  he would/should take and recube to 4.  i really dont want to be playing w/ a 4 cube at this point.  we have several rolls which make the 5 pt, and he has 3 checkers back so our gammon chances are decent.  i would just play on.

[close]