Game 2, move 17: Herd 3-3

[diane]

Position ID: Dc83AEC2bQGCDA
Match ID: QYmtABAAAAAA


Gaspar danced with 4-4, and herd is up again with a 3-3

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

No matter what we play, we're still in good shape unless he shakes a 61.  So, what play looks best for us assuming he rolls 6-1?  The ultra safe 15/6 7/4 leaves no guard  to his runner, so I don't like that. If he escapes, I'd rather recirculate and have a shot at his homeboard blot.  But slotting the ace point gives him too many numbers to hit us (I don't think intentionally forcing him  to hit so that we can pick up another checker is thematic here.)  By leaving the bar slotted we force him to hit to escape, making his one good roll backfire.

15/3

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[diane]

Spoiler

If he escapes, I'd rather recirculate and have a shot at his homeboard blot. 15/3

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Havent we enough back there already, without recirculating another?? I like getting the two forward safely into ta position suited to covering that ace, whilst leaving three back checkers to do battle...[/spoiler]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Havent we enough back there already, without recirculating another?? I like getting the two forward safely into ta position suited to covering that ace, whilst leaving three back checkers to do battle...

It's not just the number of checkers back, it's his blot on the one that we can aim at from the bar - he'll have to use both dice to play 6-1 so that blot will be sitting there if he hits us.   If he had covered that point I 'd probably be advocating for the safe play.

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[ah_clem]

gnubg results

Spoiler

2-ply analysis says that slotting the ace point is a whopper with cheese, but the other two plays are very close.

I've started a 2-ply rollout and I'll post that when it's done.




    1. Cubeful 2-ply    15/6 7/4                     Eq.:  +0.985
       0.793 0.340 0.005 - 0.207 0.037 0.001
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    2. Cubeful 2-ply    15/3                         Eq.:  +0.972 ( -0.013)
       0.792 0.336 0.005 - 0.208 0.045 0.002
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    3. Cubeful 2-ply    15/9 7/1                     Eq.:  +0.832 ( -0.152)
       0.750 0.325 0.005 - 0.250 0.067 0.003
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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[ah_clem]

2-ply rollout

Spoiler

Two ply gnubg rollout has the two moves dead even.  Not just within the margin of error, but actually the same number.  Might as well flip a coin.

I suppose this makes  some sense, since they play the same unless gaspar rolls the 1 in 18 6-1 joker. 


    1. Rollout          15/3                         Eq.:  +0.980
       0.792 0.339 0.004 - 0.208 0.048 0.004 CL  +1.062 CF  +0.980
      [0.001 0.003 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.007]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 881222205 and quasi-random dice
        Play:  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    2. Rollout          15/6 7/4                     Eq.:  +0.980 ( -0.000)
       0.791 0.334 0.005 - 0.209 0.041 0.003 CL  +1.064 CF  +0.980
      [0.001 0.003 0.001 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 881222205 and quasi-random dice
        Play:  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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