Game 1, move 8: r_monk to move 4-4

[diane]

Herd rolled 4-1 and moved 13-9, 24-23...r_monk said no recube just yet   and rolled 4-4

[r_monk]

Considering the 'safe' play 13/5  13/9(2), and 13/9(3) 11/7 or 13/9 (2) 11/3 as well.

Hitting the runner 6/2*(2) isn't an option, I think, because I have to rebuild my board after that and you still have your 6-prime.
Point is: I want that prime too.
Making the 'safe' play might be too passive. You only need a 5 to escape, with 5-5 or 5-6 you're away, and 5-4 you'll hit. Otherwise, 5-1 or 5-2 will turn your 6-prime into a 5 and it gives me the chance to hit. you also have 1-4 to escape. But if you don't roll all that? There is a chance you'll have to break your prime and there's a small chance you make your 3-point and hold the prime (6-5) - but in that case you have to roll another 5 to escape, so that will be a big dilemma.

13/9(3) 11/7: 5 and 4-1 will hit. 5-3, 5-4, 5-5, 5-6 are bad for me; 5-1 and 5-2 breaks your prime, but the next roll you probably will be away.
But if you don't roll that 4-1 or 5... I think you still have your chances. I only have a 2 or double 1 then to make my 6-prime.

13/9(2) 11/3: 1 or 6-5 will hit. With all other 5's you'll escape, but with a better chance for me to hit the runner next roll, and 5-1 and 5-2 will again put you in the position of breaking your prime.
1-4 is a dangerous roll for me, because you will hit and escape and I'm on the bar with the risk of staying there for a while. You might also hit my second blot after that and then the best scenario for me is a backgame. Otherwise: 1-2, 1-3, 1-5, 1-6 spoils your prime.

Still I think it's the best play: with 6-2 or 2-2 I have my prime. With double 1 I can make the bar-point... and I like that play most, which is more intuition then good thinking.

So 13/9(2) 11/3 it will be.

[Zorba]

Was 24/23 13/9 indeed the best move here for the Herd? It's not obvious to me, 13/8 looks like a close contender as it leaves the backchecker in a slightly better position to escape and is more flexible upfront. The full prime is nice but monk isn't threatening much to escape anyway, so it's not urgent, and it looks like it might not last long and then breaking up with all those stripped points can be uncomfortable.

[diane]

Was 24/23 13/9 indeed the best move here for the Herd?

Roll it...

[ah_clem]

Was 24/23 13/9 indeed the best move here for the Herd?

I was wondering that myself.  24/23 13/9 is certainly the "obvious" move, but it's not clear to me that the obvious move is the best move here. That said, I'm sure that I would have voted for it after agonizing over it for a few minutes, and it's pretty likely that the Herd would have gone along.  Other plays may be better, or they may be too clever by half - it's easy to overthink positions like this.

rollout

Spoiler

According to gnu 0-ply, the obvious play is the only one that preserves positive equity.  13/9 8/7 is playable but inferior.  13/8 is a blunder.

BTW, my understanding is that diane checks "nexts" with gnubg before nexting them, so these results shouldn't be too surprising.


    1. Rollout          24/23 13/9                   Eq.:  +0.046
       0.538 0.213 0.035 - 0.462 0.075 0.005 CL  +0.277 CF  +0.046
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.010]

    2. Rollout          13/9 8/7                     Eq.:  -0.011 ( -0.058)
       0.523 0.207 0.036 - 0.477 0.081 0.004 CL  +0.225 CF  -0.011
      [0.003 0.003 0.003 - 0.003 0.001 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.011]

    3. Rollout          13/8                         Eq.:  -0.080 ( -0.126)
       0.504 0.196 0.035 - 0.496 0.086 0.007 CL  +0.160 CF  -0.080
      [0.003 0.003 0.003 - 0.003 0.002 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.012]

    4. Rollout          24/23 9/5                    Eq.:  -0.116 ( -0.162)
       0.502 0.184 0.022 - 0.498 0.101 0.007 CL  +0.127 CF  -0.116
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.011]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 896490702 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

[diane]

You got it Clem - and even then I still make calls..if gnu says it is a clear one or the other move...but I think the forum will not make that decision, or learn something from talking about it, I offer it up.