Game 3, move 21: Roderick 4-3

[diane]

move?

[Roderick]

Regardless of the herd making the wrong play (as was done - leaving the 6-3 joker was probably correct due to the extremely close race) or the correct play, I run.

Had the 6-3 been left, herd would now have had a direct shot at me (and more hit and covers had I had to stop at the 4).  With the race so close that was important.

See my comment about my voluntary leave of the 6-3 joker at the tournament over the weekend in the previous play.

With the race as it is I'm probably about 48% to win.  With the 2 to hit herd would have been a heavy favorite, at the cost of the joker 6-3 (5.6%, far less than the gain on a 3-4, 3-5 or any 3)