FFM19 Game 1 Move 34: Herd to play 61

[Julia_H]

Another big-play-or-quiet-play decision for the Herd. Point on the back man with several return shots, or play safe?

[willywonka]

Spoiler

We are well ahead in the race and Red's inner board is much stronger than ours. As much as I would like to hit, I think the position calls for the quiet play rather than the big play.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Let's count return shots.  After 8/2* 3/2 Chris hits with 53, 55,  62, and 64 for a total of 7 hits.  Meanwhile, he dances 16 out of 36, and every return shot fails to cover his homeboard blot.  

Seems pretty clear to me. If we don't hit we have all sorts of awkward rolls. By hittting, we force him off balance and should be able to bear in with ease.  Filling the gap on the deuce is a big factor here.

8/2* 3/2

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Hitting wins a lot more gammons (like 4 times as many) but loses too many games to be worth it.  I miscounted the return shots - it's eleven, not seven.




    1. Rollout¹    10/3                         eq:+0.534
      Player:   77.14% (G:3.97% B:0.03%)
      Opponent: 22.86% (G:2.23% B:0.04%)
      Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.530..+0.537) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 46.8 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    8/2* 3/2                     eq:+0.451 (-0.083)
      Player:   70.24% (G:16.69% B:0.18%)
      Opponent: 29.76% (G:9.59% B:0.27%)
      Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.447..+0.455) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 45.2 seconds


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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