FFM19 Game 3 Move 23: Herd to play 32

[Julia_H]

Someone is going to have to break for home soon... not yet though

[jeff]

Where's my choice? 5/2, 5/3. That's such a bad move it's not even on the list, huh? Just like gnubg!

[dahlin]

Where's my choice? 5/2, 5/3. That's such a bad move it's not even on the list, huh? Just like gnubg!

I'm with you on this,for all the good reasons, we need another option to vote I think 

[Julia_H]

Ask and it shall be given...

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Clearing the eight point means we'll be forced to crack next roll if we shake a six.  I don't like that.

Clearing the six looks pretty and means we can play two more sixes before cracking, so that looks good.

Clearing the five means we can play two sixes and two fives before cracking, but it means we are forced to expose a blot if we roll 51.  I think  that's a fair trade.

Clearing the four is overkill.

Other options leave two blots so that we're less likely to win if we hit a shot, or they tear up the board too much.

5/2 5/3 for me.

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[jeff]

Spoiler

Clearing the eight point means we'll be forced to crack next roll if we shake a six.  I don't like that.

Clearing the six looks pretty and means we can play two more sixes before cracking, so that looks good.

Clearing the five means we can play two sixes and two fives before cracking, but it means we are forced to expose a blot if we roll 51.  I think  that's a fair trade.

Clearing the four is overkill.

Other options leave two blots so that we're less likely to win if we hit a shot, or they tear up the board too much.

5/2 5/3 for me.

[close]

Thanks. Now, if we can just recruit two more voters.

[diane]

I voted 

Spoiler

with you on the moving from the 5 point..we need to leave something to move high numbers, or we will have to break before him, and risk shots - at a time when I dont want to..maybe in a bit, when his board aint so good!

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The Herd's play is a whopper with cheese. But it's slightly better than the other contender, clearing the eight.

The right idea here is the hybrid play of 8/3.  It preserves a six, makes a full prime, and  with the open six point and homeboard blot across the board, the 11 shots are sound.



XGID=-BBABBBbB---c-----B-babcb-:0:0:1:32:2:1:0:5:10

    1. Rollout¹    8/3                          eq:+0.486
      Player:   62.36% (G:13.55% B:0.34%)
      Opponent: 37.64% (G:2.88% B:0.05%)
      Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.477..+0.496) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 32 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    6/4 6/3                      eq:+0.373 (-0.113)
      Player:   60.61% (G:10.04% B:0.15%)
      Opponent: 39.39% (G:3.56% B:0.06%)
      Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.362..+0.384) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 50 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    5/3 5/2                      eq:+0.341 (-0.146)
      Player:   59.81% (G:9.29% B:0.22%)
      Opponent: 40.19% (G:3.73% B:0.14%)
      Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.330..+0.352) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 50 seconds

    4. Rollout¹    8/6 8/5                      eq:+0.335 (-0.151)
      Player:   59.37% (G:12.36% B:0.30%)
      Opponent: 40.63% (G:4.02% B:0.11%)
      Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.325..+0.346) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 32 seconds



¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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