Spoiler
Medium sized error, but at least we avoided the whoppers :P
With the cube on 4 in a 5pt match, obviously there's quite a lot of MWC at stake, as ah_clem's rollout shows.
I'm quite surprised by the best move and probably not the only one; still trying to find a good explanation for it. The strong board will help against factotum playing too loose, and if we get to hit factotum. The follow-up after 4(2) 2(2) looks tricky though, with the stripped and stretched out position. Perhaps keeping both the 15pt and 13pt in the outfield is a strong factor, as it makes factotum's clean up of his blot harder and might also make his future moves into the outfield riskier (also because of our stronger board of course).
1. Rollout 8/4(2) 6/2(2) Eq.: -0,3083
39,39 16,01 0,83 - 60,61 14,46 2,27 CL -0,3083
[ 0,28 0,56 0,25 - 0,28 0,32 0,43 CL 0,0059]
Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859211562 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeless prune
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,08
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune
2. Rollout 13/9(2) 8/4(2) Eq.: -0,3374 ( -0,0291)
37,58 12,68 1,10 - 62,42 13,40 1,51 CL -0,3374
[ 0,26 0,51 0,33 - 0,26 0,31 0,36 CL 0,0055]
Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859211562 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeless prune
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,08
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune
3. Rollout 13/9(2) 6/2(2) Eq.: -0,3632 ( -0,0549)
36,50 12,61 0,96 - 63,50 14,03 1,43 CL -0,3632
[ 0,26 0,54 0,34 - 0,26 0,30 0,32 CL 0,0054]
Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859211562 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeless prune
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,08
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune
4. Rollout 15/11(2) 8/4(2) Eq.: -0,3962 ( -0,0879)
35,22 11,71 0,38 - 64,78 15,14 2,66 CL -0,3962
[ 0,63 0,81 0,21 - 0,63 0,72 1,01 CL 0,0134]
Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
108 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859211562 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeless prune
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,08
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune
5. Rollout 15/7(2) Eq.: -0,4043 ( -0,0960)
33,69 10,49 2,95 - 66,31 11,76 0,00 CL -0,4043
[ 0,76 0,99 1,48 - 0,76 0,82 2,62 CL 0,0155]
Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
108 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859211562 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeless prune
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,08
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune
6. Rollout 15/11(2) 6/2(2) Eq.: -0,4432 ( -0,1349)
32,96 11,39 2,02 - 67,04 15,42 0,71 CL -0,4432
[ 0,65 1,19 1,75 - 0,65 0,72 0,69 CL 0,0142]
Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
108 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859211562 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeless prune
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,08
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune
7. Rollout 15/11(2) 13/9(2) Eq.: -0,4860 ( -0,1777)
30,33 8,77 1,16 - 69,67 13,95 1,90 CL -0,4860
[ 0,61 0,87 0,80 - 0,61 0,83 0,80 CL 0,0131]
Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
108 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859211562 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeless prune
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,08
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune